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Productive Ecosystems and the arrow of development

Author

Listed:
  • Neave O’Clery

    (University College London
    University of Oxford
    Harvard University)

  • Muhammed Ali Yıldırım

    (Harvard University
    Koç University)

  • Ricardo Hausmann

    (Harvard University
    Harvard Kennedy School
    Santa Fe Institute)

Abstract

Economic growth is associated with the diversification of economic activities, which can be observed via the evolution of product export baskets. Exporting a new product is dependent on having, and acquiring, a specific set of capabilities, making the diversification process path-dependent. Taking an agnostic view on the identity of the capabilities, here we derive a probabilistic model for the directed dynamical process of capability accumulation and product diversification of countries. Using international trade data, we identify the set of pre-existing products, the product Ecosystem, that enables a product to be exported competitively. We construct a directed network of products, the Eco Space, where the edge weight corresponds to capability overlap. We uncover a modular structure, and show that low- and middle-income countries move from product communities dominated by small Ecosystem products to advanced (large Ecosystem) product clusters over time. Finally, we show that our network model is predictive of product appearances.

Suggested Citation

  • Neave O’Clery & Muhammed Ali Yıldırım & Ricardo Hausmann, 2021. "Productive Ecosystems and the arrow of development," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21689-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21689-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(3).
    2. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "Reprint of The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    3. Koen Frenken & Frank Neffke & Alje van Dam, 2023. "Capabilities, institutions and regional economic development: a proposed synthesis," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 16(3), pages 405-416.
    4. Castañeda, Gonzalo & Pietronero, Luciano & Romero-Padilla, Juan & Zaccaria, Andrea, 2022. "The complex dynamic of growth: Fitness and the different patterns of economic activity in the medium and long terms," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 231-246.
    5. Coniglio, Nicola D. & Vurchio, Davide & Cantore, Nicola & Clara, Michele, 2021. "On the evolution of comparative advantage: Path-dependent versus path-defying changes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Massimiliano Fessina & Giambattista Albora & Andrea Tacchella & Andrea Zaccaria, 2022. "Which products activate a product? An explainable machine learning approach," Papers 2212.03094, arXiv.org.

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