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Human-driven greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions cause distinct regional impacts on extreme fire weather

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  • Danielle Touma

    (University of California, Santa Barbara)

  • Samantha Stevenson

    (University of California, Santa Barbara)

  • Flavio Lehner

    (ETH Zürich
    National Center for Atmospheric Research
    Cornell University)

  • Sloan Coats

    (University of Hawai’i at Mānoa)

Abstract

Attribution studies have identified a robust anthropogenic fingerprint in increased 21st century wildfire risk. However, the risks associated with individual aspects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, biomass burning and land use/land cover change remain unknown. Here, we use new climate model large ensembles isolating these influences to show that GHG-driven increases in extreme fire weather conditions have been balanced by aerosol-driven cooling throughout the 20th century. This compensation is projected to disappear due to future reductions in aerosol emissions, causing unprecedented increases in extreme fire weather risk in the 21st century as GHGs continue to rise. Changes to temperature and relative humidity drive the largest shifts in extreme fire weather conditions; this is particularly apparent over the Amazon, where GHGs cause a seven-fold increase by 2080. Our results allow increased understanding of the interacting roles of anthropogenic stressors in altering the regional expression of future wildfire risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Danielle Touma & Samantha Stevenson & Flavio Lehner & Sloan Coats, 2021. "Human-driven greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions cause distinct regional impacts on extreme fire weather," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-20570-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20570-w
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    Cited by:

    1. Ren, Shenggang & Yang, Xuanyu & Hu, Yucai & Chevallier, Julien, 2022. "Emission trading, induced innovation and firm performance," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    2. Hao Zhang & Xuan Zhang & Yan Wang & Pengchu Bai & Kazuichi Hayakawa & Lulu Zhang & Ning Tang, 2022. "Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Emitted from Open Burning and Stove Burning of Biomass: A Brief Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-17, March.
    3. Xuezhi Tan & Xinxin Wu & Zeqin Huang & Jianyu Fu & Xuejin Tan & Simin Deng & Yaxin Liu & Thian Yew Gan & Bingjun Liu, 2023. "Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Yuting Zhou & Grace E. Klinger & Eric L. Hegg & Christopher M. Saffron & James E. Jackson, 2022. "Skeletal Ni electrode-catalyzed C-O cleavage of diaryl ethers entails direct elimination via benzyne intermediates," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.

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