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Mapping global urban land for the 21st century with data-driven simulations and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Author

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  • Jing Gao

    (University of Delaware)

  • Brian C. O’Neill

    (University of Denver)

Abstract

Urban land expansion is one of the most visible, irreversible, and rapid types of land cover/land use change in contemporary human history, and is a key driver for many environmental and societal changes across scales. Yet spatial projections of how much and where it may occur are often limited to short-term futures and small geographic areas. Here we produce a first empirically-grounded set of global, spatial urban land projections over the 21st century. We use a data-science approach exploiting 15 diverse datasets, including a newly available 40-year global time series of fine-spatial-resolution remote sensing observations. We find the global total amount of urban land could increase by a factor of 1.8–5.9, and the per capita amount by a factor of 1.1–4.9, across different socioeconomic scenarios over the century. Though the fastest urban land expansion occurs in Africa and Asia, the developed world experiences a similarly large amount of new development.

Suggested Citation

  • Jing Gao & Brian C. O’Neill, 2020. "Mapping global urban land for the 21st century with data-driven simulations and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-15788-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15788-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Yeon-Su & Rodrigues, Marcos & Robinne, François-Nicolas, 2021. "Economic drivers of global fire activity: A critical review using the DPSIR framework," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Guangdong Li & Chuanglin Fang & Yingjie Li & Zhenbo Wang & Siao Sun & Sanwei He & Wei Qi & Chao Bao & Haitao Ma & Yupeng Fan & Yuxue Feng & Xiaoping Liu, 2022. "Global impacts of future urban expansion on terrestrial vertebrate diversity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Shengbiao Wu & Bin Chen & Chris Webster & Bing Xu & Peng Gong, 2023. "Improved human greenspace exposure equality during 21st century urbanization," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Richardson, Benjamin Felix, 2022. "Finance, food, and future urban zones: The failure of flexible development in Auckland, New Zealand," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. Hongbo Guo & Enzai Du & César Terrer & Robert B. Jackson, 2024. "Global distribution of surface soil organic carbon in urban greenspaces," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    6. Venla Niva & Alexander Horton & Vili Virkki & Matias Heino & Maria Kosonen & Marko Kallio & Pekka Kinnunen & Guy J. Abel & Raya Muttarak & Maija Taka & Olli Varis & Matti Kummu, 2023. "World’s human migration patterns in 2000–2019 unveiled by high-resolution data," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 7(11), pages 2023-2037, November.
    7. Jing Gao & Melissa S. Bukovsky, 2023. "Urban land patterns can moderate population exposures to climate extremes over the 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Fangkai Zhao & Lei Yang & Haw Yen & Qingyu Feng & Min Li & Liding Chen, 2023. "Reducing risks of antibiotics to crop production requires land system intensification within thresholds," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

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