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Predominant regional biophysical cooling from recent land cover changes in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Bo Huang

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU))

  • Xiangping Hu

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU))

  • Geir-Arne Fuglstad

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU))

  • Xu Zhou

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Wenwu Zhao

    (Beijing Normal University (BNU))

  • Francesco Cherubini

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU))

Abstract

Around 70 Mha of land cover changes (LCCs) occurred in Europe from 1992 to 2015. Despite LCCs being an important driver of regional climate variations, their temperature effects at a continental scale have not yet been assessed. Here, we integrate maps of historical LCCs with a regional climate model to investigate air temperature and humidity effects. We find an average temperature change of −0.12 ± 0.20 °C, with widespread cooling (up to −1.0 °C) in western and central Europe in summer and spring. At continental scale, the mean cooling is mainly correlated with agriculture abandonment (cropland-to-forest transitions), but a new approach based on ridge-regression decomposing the temperature change to the individual land transitions shows opposite responses to cropland losses and gains between western and eastern Europe. Effects of historical LCCs on European climate are non-negligible and region-specific, and ignoring land-climate biophysical interactions may lead to sub-optimal climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Bo Huang & Xiangping Hu & Geir-Arne Fuglstad & Xu Zhou & Wenwu Zhao & Francesco Cherubini, 2020. "Predominant regional biophysical cooling from recent land cover changes in Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-14890-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-14890-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Si & Hu, Shougeng & Frazier, Amy E., 2021. "Spatiotemporal variation and driving factors of carbon emissions in three industrial land spaces in China from 1997 to 2016," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. Zhenhua Wu & Linghui Zhou & Yabei Wang, 2022. "Prediction of the Spatial Pattern of Carbon Emissions Based on Simulation of Land Use Change under Different Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.

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