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Halving warming with idealized solar geoengineering moderates key climate hazards

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Irvine

    (Harvard University)

  • Kerry Emanuel

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Jie He

    (Princeton University
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
    Georgia Institute of Technology)

  • Larry W. Horowitz

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • Gabriel Vecchi

    (Princeton University)

  • David Keith

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

Solar geoengineering (SG) has the potential to restore average surface temperatures by increasing planetary albedo1–4, but this could reduce precipitation5–7. Thus, although SG might reduce globally aggregated risks, it may increase climate risks for some regions8–10. Here, using the high-resolution forecast-oriented low ocean resolution (HiFLOR) model—which resolves tropical cyclones and has an improved representation of present-day precipitation extremes11,12—alongside 12 models from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), we analyse the fraction of locations that see their local climate change exacerbated or moderated by SG. Rather than restoring temperatures, we assume that SG is applied to halve the warming produced by doubling CO2 (half-SG). In HiFLOR, half-SG offsets most of the CO2-induced increase of simulated tropical cyclone intensity. Moreover, neither temperature, water availability, extreme temperature nor extreme precipitation are exacerbated under half-SG when averaged over any Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Extremes (SREX) region. Indeed, for both extreme precipitation and water availability, less than 0.4% of the ice-free land surface sees exacerbation. Thus, while concerns about the inequality of solar geoengineering impacts are appropriate, the quantitative extent of inequality may be overstated13.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Irvine & Kerry Emanuel & Jie He & Larry W. Horowitz & Gabriel Vecchi & David Keith, 2019. "Halving warming with idealized solar geoengineering moderates key climate hazards," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(4), pages 295-299, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0398-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0398-8
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Riccardo Ghidoni & Anna Lou Abatayo & Valentina Bosetti & Marco Casari & Massimo Tavoni, 2023. "Governing Climate Geoengineering: Side Payments Are Not Enough," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(5), pages 1149-1177.
    2. Michael S. Diamond & Kelly Wanser & Olivier Boucher, 2023. "“Cooling credits” are not a viable climate solution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(7), pages 1-9, July.
    3. Sikina Jinnah & David Morrow & Simon Nicholson, 2021. "Splitting Climate Engineering Governance: How Problem Structure Shapes Institutional Design," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(S1), pages 8-19, April.
    4. Joshua B. Horton & Penehuro Lefale & David Keith, 2021. "Parametric Insurance for Solar Geoengineering: Insights from the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(S1), pages 97-107, April.
    5. Matthias Honegger & Axel Michaelowa & Jiahua Pan, 2021. "Potential implications of solar radiation modification for achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1-20, June.
    6. Daniel P. Carlisle & Pamela M. Feetham & Malcolm J. Wright & Damon A. H. Teagle, 2020. "The public remain uninformed and wary of climate engineering," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 303-322, May.
    7. Duncan McLaren & Olaf Corry, 2021. "Clash of Geofutures and the Remaking of Planetary Order: Faultlines underlying Conflicts over Geoengineering Governance," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(S1), pages 20-33, April.
    8. Beckage, Brian & Lacasse, Katherine & Raimi, Kaitlin T. & Visioni, Daniele, 2023. "Integrating Risk Perception with Climate Models to Understand the Potential Deployment of Solar Radiation Modification to Mitigate Climate Change," RFF Working Paper Series 23-22, Resources for the Future.
    9. Dipu, Sudhakar & Quaas, Johannes & Quaas, Martin & Rickels, Wilfried & Mülmenstädt, Johannes & Boucher, Olivier, 2021. "Substantial Climate Response outside the Target Area in an Idealized Experiment of Regional Radiation Management," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 240193, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Ina Möller, 2020. "Political Perspectives on Geoengineering: Navigating Problem Definition and Institutional Fit Abstract: Geoengineering technologies are by definition only effective at scale, and so international poli," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 57-82, May.
    11. Wake Smith & Claire Henly, 2021. "Updated and outdated reservations about research into stratospheric aerosol injection," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-15, February.
    12. Sergei Soldatenko & Rafael Yusupov, 2021. "An Optimal Control Perspective on Weather and Climate Modification," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-15, February.
    13. Todd L. Cherry & Stephan Kroll & David M. McEvoy, 2023. "Climate cooperation with risky solar geoengineering," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-14, October.

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