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Sea-level-rise-induced threats depend on the size of tide-influenced estuaries worldwide

Author

Listed:
  • Jasper R. F. W. Leuven

    (Utrecht University)

  • Harm Jan Pierik

    (Utrecht University)

  • Maarten van der Vegt

    (Utrecht University)

  • Tjeerd J. Bouma

    (Utrecht University
    Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research)

  • Maarten G. Kleinhans

    (Utrecht University)

Abstract

The effects of sea-level rise on the future morphological functioning of estuaries are largely unknown because tidal amplitudes will change due to combined deepening of the estuary mouth and shifting amphidromic points at sea. Fluvial sediment supply is also globally decreasing, which hampers infilling necessary to maintain elevation relative to sea level. Here we model 36 estuaries worldwide with varying sizes, shapes and hydrodynamic characteristics, and find that small shallow estuaries and large deep estuaries respond in opposite ways to sea-level rise. Large estuaries are threatened by sediment starvation and therefore loss of intertidal area, particularly if tidal amplitude decreases at the mouth. In contrast, small estuaries face enhanced flood risks and are more sensitive to tidal amplification on sea-level-rise-induced deepening. Estuary widening can partly mitigate adverse effects. In large estuaries, expanded intertidal areas increase tidal prism and available erodible sediment for adaptation, whereas it slightly reduces tidal amplification in small estuaries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jasper R. F. W. Leuven & Harm Jan Pierik & Maarten van der Vegt & Tjeerd J. Bouma & Maarten G. Kleinhans, 2019. "Sea-level-rise-induced threats depend on the size of tide-influenced estuaries worldwide," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(12), pages 986-992, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0608-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0608-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Soroush Kouhi & M. Reza Hashemi & Malcolm Spaulding & Tetsu Hara, 2022. "Modeling the impact of sea level rise on maximum water elevation during storm surge events: a closer look at coastal embayments," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 1-20, April.
    2. Khojasteh, Danial & Lewis, Matthew & Tavakoli, Sasan & Farzadkhoo, Maryam & Felder, Stefan & Iglesias, Gregorio & Glamore, William, 2022. "Sea level rise will change estuarine tidal energy: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Khojasteh, Danial & Chen, Shengyang & Felder, Stefan & Glamore, William & Hashemi, M. Reza & Iglesias, Gregorio, 2022. "Sea level rise changes estuarine tidal stream energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).

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