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Antibiotic resistance increases with local temperature

Author

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  • Derek R. MacFadden

    (University of Toronto
    Harvard Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University
    Computational Epidemiology Group, Boston Children’s Hospital)

  • Sarah F. McGough

    (Harvard Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University
    Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children’s Hospital)

  • David Fisman

    (University of Toronto)

  • Mauricio Santillana

    (Computational Epidemiology Group, Boston Children’s Hospital
    Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children’s Hospital
    Harvard University)

  • John S. Brownstein

    (Computational Epidemiology Group, Boston Children’s Hospital
    Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children’s Hospital
    Harvard University)

Abstract

Bacteria that cause infections in humans can develop or acquire resistance to antibiotics commonly used against them1,2. Antimicrobial resistance (in bacteria and other microbes) causes significant morbidity worldwide, and some estimates indicate the attributable mortality could reach up to 10 million by 20502–4. Antibiotic resistance in bacteria is believed to develop largely under the selective pressure of antibiotic use; however, other factors may contribute to population level increases in antibiotic resistance1,2. We explored the role of climate (temperature) and additional factors on the distribution of antibiotic resistance across the United States, and here we show that increasing local temperature as well as population density are associated with increasing antibiotic resistance (percent resistant) in common pathogens. We found that an increase in temperature of 10 °C across regions was associated with an increases in antibiotic resistance of 4.2%, 2.2%, and 2.7% for the common pathogens Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus. The associations between temperature and antibiotic resistance in this ecological study are consistent across most classes of antibiotics and pathogens and may be strengthening over time. These findings suggest that current forecasts of the burden of antibiotic resistance could be significant underestimates in the face of a growing population and climate change4.

Suggested Citation

  • Derek R. MacFadden & Sarah F. McGough & David Fisman & Mauricio Santillana & John S. Brownstein, 2018. "Antibiotic resistance increases with local temperature," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(6), pages 510-514, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0161-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0161-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Dubois, Pierre & Gokkoca, Gokce, 2023. "Antibiotic Demand in the Presence of Antimicrobial Resistance," TSE Working Papers 23-1457, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    2. Siddharth Srivastava & Fahad Khokhar & Archana Madhav & Billy Pembroke & Vignesh Shetty & Ankur Mutreja, 2021. "COVID-19 Lessons for Climate Change and Sustainable Health," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-13, September.
    3. Irene Anna Lambraki & Melanie Cousins & Tiscar Graells & Anaïs Léger & Patrik Henriksson & Stephan Harbarth & Max Troell & Didier Wernli & Peter Søgaard Jørgensen & Andrew P Desbois & Carolee A Carson, 2022. "Factors influencing antimicrobial resistance in the European food system and potential leverage points for intervention: A participatory, One Health study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-19, February.
    4. Gabriel K. Innes & Agnes Markos & Kathryn R. Dalton & Caitlin A. Gould & Keeve E. Nachman & Jessica Fanzo & Anne Barnhill & Shannon Frattaroli & Meghan F. Davis, 2021. "How animal agriculture stakeholders define, perceive, and are impacted by antimicrobial resistance: challenging the Wellcome Trust’s Reframing Resistance principles," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 38(4), pages 893-909, December.

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