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Dual impact of global urban overheating on mortality

Author

Listed:
  • Shasha Wang

    (Nanjing University)

  • Wenfeng Zhan

    (Nanjing University
    Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application)

  • Bingbing Zhou

    (Ocean University of China)

  • Shilu Tong

    (National Institute of Environmental Health Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing
    Queensland University of Technology)

  • TC Chakraborty

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Zhihua Wang

    (Arizona State University)

  • Kangning Huang

    (New York University Shanghai)

  • Huilin Du

    (Nanjing University)

  • Ariane Middel

    (Arizona State University)

  • Jiufeng Li

    (Nanjing University)

  • Zihan Liu

    (Anhui University)

  • Long Li

    (Nanjing University)

  • Fan Huang

    (Hohai University)

  • Manchun Li

    (Nanjing University)

Abstract

It is known that the urban heat island (UHI) effect could increase mortality in hot seasons, yet its potential health benefits during cold spells are often overlooked. Here we assess the beneficial and detrimental impacts of the UHI effect and associated cooling strategies on temperature-related mortality in more than 3,000 cities worldwide by integrating multi-source datasets. This study finds that the UHI effect reduces global cold-related mortality, surpassing the increase in heat-related mortality more than fourfold. Widely implemented urban cooling strategies, including green and reflective infrastructure, can have an adverse net effect in high-latitude cities but benefit a few tropical cities. We propose seasonal adjustments to roof albedo as an actionable strategy to reduce heat- and cold-related mortality. Our findings highlight that urban heat can protect against mortality in most non-tropical cities in the cold season, emphasizing the importance of seasonally and place-based adaptive UHI mitigation strategies to reduce temperature-related mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Shasha Wang & Wenfeng Zhan & Bingbing Zhou & Shilu Tong & TC Chakraborty & Zhihua Wang & Kangning Huang & Huilin Du & Ariane Middel & Jiufeng Li & Zihan Liu & Long Li & Fan Huang & Manchun Li, 2025. "Dual impact of global urban overheating on mortality," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 15(5), pages 497-504, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:15:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1038_s41558-025-02303-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02303-3
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