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Weakening aerosol direct radiative effects mitigate climate penalty on Chinese air quality

Author

Listed:
  • Chaopeng Hong

    (Tsinghua University
    University of California, Irvine)

  • Qiang Zhang

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Yang Zhang

    (Northeastern University
    North Carolina State University)

  • Steven J. Davis

    (Tsinghua University
    University of California, Irvine
    University of California, Irvine)

  • Xin Zhang

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Dan Tong

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Dabo Guan

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Zhu Liu

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Kebin He

    (Tsinghua University
    Tsinghua University)

Abstract

Future climate change may worsen air quality in many regions. However, evaluations of this ‘climate penalty’ on air quality have typically not assessed the radiative effects of changes in short-lived aerosols. Additionally, China’s clean air goals will decrease pollutant emissions and aerosol loadings, with concomitant weakening of aerosol feedbacks. Here we assess how such weakened aerosol direct effects alter the estimates of air pollution and premature mortality in China attributable to mid-century climate change under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. We found that weakening aerosol direct effects cause boundary layer changes that facilitate diffusion. This reduces air-pollution exposure (~4% in fine particulate matter) and deaths (13,800 people per year), which largely offset the additional deaths caused by greenhouse gas-dominated warming. These results highlight the benefits of reduced pollutant emissions through weakening aerosol direct effects and underline the potential of pollution control measures to mitigate climate penalties locked in by greenhouse gas emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Chaopeng Hong & Qiang Zhang & Yang Zhang & Steven J. Davis & Xin Zhang & Dan Tong & Dabo Guan & Zhu Liu & Kebin He, 2020. "Weakening aerosol direct radiative effects mitigate climate penalty on Chinese air quality," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(9), pages 845-850, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-020-0840-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0840-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Rong Tang & Jing Zhao & Yifan Liu & Xin Huang & Yanxu Zhang & Derong Zhou & Aijun Ding & Chris P. Nielsen & Haikun Wang, 2022. "Air quality and health co-benefits of China’s carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Qinren Shi & Bo Zheng & Yixuan Zheng & Dan Tong & Yang Liu & Hanchen Ma & Chaopeng Hong & Guannan Geng & Dabo Guan & Kebin He & Qiang Zhang, 2022. "Co-benefits of CO2 emission reduction from China’s clean air actions between 2013-2020," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Xialing Sun & Rui Zhang & Geyi Wang, 2022. "Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Health Impact and Economic Loss upon Exposure to PM 2.5 in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-17, February.
    4. Yi Chen & Yinrong Chen & Kun Chen & Min Liu, 2023. "Research Progress and Hotspot Analysis of Residential Carbon Emissions Based on CiteSpace Software," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-19, January.

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