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Coldest Canadian Arctic communities face greatest reductions in shorefast sea ice

Author

Listed:
  • Sarah W. Cooley

    (Brown University
    Brown University)

  • Jonathan C. Ryan

    (Brown University)

  • Laurence C. Smith

    (Brown University
    Brown University)

  • Chris Horvat

    (Brown University
    Brown University)

  • Brodie Pearson

    (Brown University
    Oregon State University)

  • Brigt Dale

    (Nordland Research Institute)

  • Amanda H. Lynch

    (Brown University
    Brown University)

Abstract

Shorefast sea ice comprises only about 12% of global sea-ice cover, yet it has outsized importance for Arctic societies and ecosystems. Relatively little is known, however, about the dominant drivers of its breakup or how it will respond to climate warming. Here, we use 19 years of near-daily satellite imagery to document the timing of shorefast ice breakup in 28 communities in northern Canada and western Greenland that rely on shorefast ice for transportation and traditional subsistence activities. Breakup timing is strongly correlated with springtime air temperature, but the sensitivity of the relationship varies substantially among communities. We combine these observations with future warming scenarios to estimate an annual reduction of 5–44 days in the length of the springtime shorefast ice season by 2100. Paradoxically, the coldest communities are projected to experience the largest reductions in springtime ice season duration. Our results emphasize the local nature of climate change and its varied impacts on Arctic communities.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah W. Cooley & Jonathan C. Ryan & Laurence C. Smith & Chris Horvat & Brodie Pearson & Brigt Dale & Amanda H. Lynch, 2020. "Coldest Canadian Arctic communities face greatest reductions in shorefast sea ice," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(6), pages 533-538, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-020-0757-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0757-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Xueke Li & Amanda H. Lynch, 2023. "New insights into projected Arctic sea road: operational risks, economic values, and policy implications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(4), pages 1-16, April.
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Göbel, Maximilian & Goulet Coulombe, Philippe & Zhang, Boyuan, 2023. "When will Arctic sea ice disappear? Projections of area, extent, thickness, and volume," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    3. Xueke Li & Scott R. Stephenson & Amanda H. Lynch & Michael A. Goldstein & David A. Bailey & Siri Veland, 2021. "Arctic shipping guidance from the CMIP6 ensemble on operational and infrastructural timescales," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-19, July.

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