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Drought less predictable under declining future snowpack

Author

Listed:
  • Ben Livneh

    (University of Colorado Boulder
    Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)

  • Andrew M. Badger

    (Universities Space Research Association
    NASA Goddard Space Flight Center)

Abstract

Mountain snowpack serves as an immense natural water reservoir, and knowledge of snow conditions helps predict seasonal water availability and offers critical early warning of hydrologic drought. This paradigm faces an impending challenge given consensus that a smaller fraction of future precipitation will fall as snow. Here, we apply downscaled hydrologic simulations from 28 climate model projections to show that by mid-century (2036–2065), 69% of historically snowmelt-dominated areas of the western United States see a decline in the ability of snow to predict seasonal drought, increasing to 83% by late century (2070–2099). Reduced predictability arises when peak snowpack approaches zero or because of decreased warm-season runoff efficiency. Changes in drought prediction skill show significant (P

Suggested Citation

  • Ben Livneh & Andrew M. Badger, 2020. "Drought less predictable under declining future snowpack," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(5), pages 452-458, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:5:d:10.1038_s41558-020-0754-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0754-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Barnard, David M. & Green, Timothy R. & Mankin, Kyle R. & DeJonge, Kendall C. & Rhoades, Charles C. & Kampf, Stephanie K. & Giovando, Jeremy & Wilkins, Mike J. & Mahood, Adam L. & Sears, Megan G. & Co, 2023. "Wildfire and climate change amplify knowledge gaps linking mountain source-water systems and agricultural water supply in the western United States," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    2. Yuan Kong & Chao Feng & Liyang Guo, 2022. "Peaking Global and G20 Countries’ CO 2 Emissions under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-19, September.
    3. Kaustubh Anil Salvi & Mukesh Kumar, 2024. "Imprint of urbanization on snow precipitation over the continental USA," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Potter, Nicholas & Hrozencik, Robert A., 2023. "Accounting for Non-Local Climate in Estimating Climate Impacts on Agriculture," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335654, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Yang Yang & Shiwei Liu & Cunde Xiao & Cuiyang Feng & Chenyu Li, 2021. "Evaluating Cryospheric Water Withdrawal and Virtual Water Flows in Tarim River Basin of China: An Input–Output Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-16, July.

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