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Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects

Author

Listed:
  • C. Deser

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research
    US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles)

  • F. Lehner

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research
    US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles)

  • K. B. Rodgers

    (US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles
    Institute for Basic Science
    Pusan National University)

  • T. Ault

    (US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles
    Cornell University)

  • T. L. Delworth

    (US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles
    Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA)

  • P. N. DiNezio

    (US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles
    University of Texas, Austin)

  • A. Fiore

    (US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles
    Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University)

  • C. Frankignoul

    (US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles
    Sorbonne University)

  • J. C. Fyfe

    (US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles
    University of Victoria)

  • D. E. Horton

    (US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles
    Northwestern University)

  • J. E. Kay

    (US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles
    University of Colorado Boulder
    University of Colorado)

  • R. Knutti

    (US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles
    ETH Zurich)

  • N. S. Lovenduski

    (US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles
    University of Colorado Boulder
    University of Colorado)

  • J. Marotzke

    (US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles
    Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

  • K. A. McKinnon

    (US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles
    University of California, Los Angeles)

  • S. Minobe

    (US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles
    Hokkaido University, Sapporo)

  • J. Randerson

    (US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles
    University of California Irvine)

  • J. A. Screen

    (US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles
    University of Exeter)

  • I. R. Simpson

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research
    US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles)

  • M. Ting

    (US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles
    Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University)

Abstract

Internal variability in the climate system confounds assessment of human-induced climate change and imposes irreducible limits on the accuracy of climate change projections, especially at regional and decadal scales. A new collection of initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) generated with seven Earth system models under historical and future radiative forcing scenarios provides new insights into uncertainties due to internal variability versus model differences. These data enhance the assessment of climate change risks, including extreme events, and offer a powerful testbed for new methodologies aimed at separating forced signals from internal variability in the observational record. Opportunities and challenges confronting the design and dissemination of future LEs, including increased spatial resolution and model complexity alongside emerging Earth system applications, are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • C. Deser & F. Lehner & K. B. Rodgers & T. Ault & T. L. Delworth & P. N. DiNezio & A. Fiore & C. Frankignoul & J. C. Fyfe & D. E. Horton & J. E. Kay & R. Knutti & N. S. Lovenduski & J. Marotzke & K. A., 2020. "Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(4), pages 277-286, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1038_s41558-020-0731-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2
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