IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Duration dependence in the exit from a temporary job: does contract type matter?


  • Giulio Bosio


In order to enhance the flexibility of the labour market and to stress the capabilities to create jobs, a progressive liberalization of flexible contracts has been adopted in Italy during the Nineties. This paper provides a description of the transition patterns of temporary workers towards a stable job, identifying the duration dependence associated with a temporary work experience. In other words, the crucial question is the extent to which temporary contracts represent a stepping stone towards an open ended job and whether the Treu law has modified the traditional pattern in terms of duration dependence. I base my empirical evidence on a longitudinal sample of workers in Italy, using an administrative dataset extracted by the social security archives for the years 1992-2002. Empirically, I adopt a single risk proportional hazard model, employing a piecewise constant baseline hazard. I find that the introduction of Treu law has substantially reduced the positive duration dependence in the probability of moving from temporary to permanent job. Additionally, this result is robust to the adoption of several specifications. However, not all temporary contracts show the same pattern: for instance, TWA employment and apprenticeship (in some time spans) exhibit negative duration dependence after the reform, suggesting a less relevant positive effect of continuous employment on the subsequent career paths.

Suggested Citation

  • Giulio Bosio, 2011. "Duration dependence in the exit from a temporary job: does contract type matter?," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 49-82.
  • Handle: RePEc:mul:je8794:doi:10.1429/34353:y:2011:i:1:p:49-82

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item


    temporary employment; piecewise constant hazard model; duration dependence; C41; J24; J64.;

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mul:je8794:doi:10.1429/34353:y:2011:i:1:p:49-82. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.