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Exchange rate volatility and domestic consumption: a multicountry analysis

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  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
  • Dan Xi

Abstract

Inflation uncertainty, measured by the volatility of inflation, is said to have a negative effect on domestic consumption by making the public more cautious about their spending. Since exchange rate volatility contributes to inflation volatility, we conjecture that it could have a direct effect on domestic consumption. We demonstrate our conjecture by specifying a consumption function that includes a measure of exchange rate volatility, in addition to its usual determinants. The model is estimated for each of the 17 countries in the sample using the boundstesting approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling. The results reveal that in 12 of the countries, exchange rate volatility has short-run effects on consumption. Long-run effects are observed in only 9 countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Dan Xi, 2011. "Exchange rate volatility and domestic consumption: a multicountry analysis," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 319-330.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:34:y:2011:i:2:p:319-330
    DOI: 10.2753/PKE0160-3477340207
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    Cited by:

    1. Okwu, Andy & Akpa, Emeka & Oseni, Isiaq & Obiakor, Rowland, 2020. "Oil Export Revenue and Exchange Rate: An Investigation of Asymmetric Effects on Households’ Consumption Expenditure in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 102080, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Gülsüm Akarsu, 2017. "Analyzing the impact of oil price volatility on electricity demand: the case of Turkey," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(3), pages 371-388, December.
    3. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Maki Nayeri, Majid, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and consumption in G7 countries: An asymmetry analysis," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 101-113.
    4. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin-Yu Ho, 2017. "Exchange rate uncertainty and domestic investment in Ghana," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1362157-136, January.

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