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A Note on the COVID-19 Shock and Real GDP in Emerging Economies

Author

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  • Afees A. Salisu
  • Idris A. Adediran
  • Rangan Gupta

Abstract

In this study, we estimate a multi-country Threshold-Augmented Global Vector Autoregressive (TGVAR) model to analyze the response of real GDP of emerging economies (Brazil, India, China, and South Africa) with reference to selected advanced economies (US, UK, & Germany) to the COVID-19 shock. The result of the counterfactual analysis beyond the 2019Q4 indicates that the impact of COVID-19 shock on real GDP is pervasive and more prevalent in the developed than the emerging economies. Our model forecasts real GDP growth of emerging countries more precisely, but we attribute the shortfalls in the projections for advanced economies to the efficacy of fiscal and unconventional monetary policies to speed up the recovery in these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Afees A. Salisu & Idris A. Adediran & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "A Note on the COVID-19 Shock and Real GDP in Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(1), pages 93-101, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:58:y:2022:i:1:p:93-101
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2021.1981854
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhitao, Wang & Xiang, Ma, 2023. "Financial mismatch on corporate debt default risk: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Nie, Zi & Ling, Xuan & Chen, Meian, 2023. "The power of technology: FinTech and corporate debt default risk in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Ruipeng Liu & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri, 2021. "Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Rate Uncertainty and Stock Market Volatility: A Forecasting Perspective," Working Papers 202178, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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