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Stock Market Reaction to Monetary Policy: An Event Study Analysis of the Brazilian Case

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  • Flávio de Freitas Val
  • Marcelo Cabus Klotzle
  • Antonio Carlos Figueiredo Pinto
  • Claudio Henrique da Silveira Barbedo

Abstract

This article examines the relationship between the monetary policy implemented by the Central Bank of Brazil and the stock market. We implement event study analysis and analyze the effect of the anticipated and unanticipated components of monetary policy decisions on the returns of the IBOVESPA index and 53 stocks. We find that monetary policy has a significant effect on the stock market, but is only responsible for a small proportion of market variation. The analysis at the sector level with expected returns identifies that the financial sector is the most affected by this policy, whereas with excess returns only industrial goods are significantly affected. Moreover, individual assets respond in a rather heterogeneous fashion to monetary policy; however, when we look at excess returns, we identify a reduction in the intensity and in the number of companies impacted by monetary policy. Finally, the monetary shock is explained by unanticipated variations in the unemployment rate, in the Industrial Production Index, in the General Market Price Index, and in the Broad Consumer Price Index.

Suggested Citation

  • Flávio de Freitas Val & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle & Antonio Carlos Figueiredo Pinto & Claudio Henrique da Silveira Barbedo, 2018. "Stock Market Reaction to Monetary Policy: An Event Study Analysis of the Brazilian Case," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(11), pages 2577-2595, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:54:y:2018:i:11:p:2577-2595
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2017.1364622
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    Cited by:

    1. Rai, Anoop & Rojer, Guido & Susanna, Edirel, 2021. "Central bank transparency and market reaction in Brazil, Chile, and Colombia," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    2. Thanh, Su Dinh & Canh, Nguyen Phuc & Maiti, Moinak, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of unanticipated monetary shocks on stock prices: Emerging market evidence," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 40-55.
    3. Li, Xiao-Lin & Yan, Jing & Wei, Xiaohui, 2021. "Dynamic connectedness among monetary policy cycle, financial cycle and business cycle in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 640-652.
    4. Yue Liu & Hao Dong & Pierre Failler, 2019. "The Oil Market Reactions to OPEC’s Announcements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-15, August.
    5. Evans Opoku‐Mensah & Yuming Yin, 2023. "Controlling shareholders' influence on acquisition decisions and value creation: An empirical study from China," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1965-1980, April.
    6. Maran, Raluca, 2022. "Reaction of the Philippine stock market to domestic monetary policy surprises: an event study approach," MPRA Paper 114855, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Deng, Chuang & Zhao, Xiuyi & Xu, Man, 2022. "Financial cycle and the effect of monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).

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