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The Stock Markets and Real Economic Activity


  • Stefan Lyocsa
  • Eduard Baumohl
  • Tomas Vyrost


The goal of this paper is to provide new evidence on the bidirectional relationships between economic activity indicators and stock market returns in four Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries: Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia. Using the single equation error correction model (SEECM) framework of cointegration analysis, the Engle-Granger two-step procedure, single-equation Granger causality tests, and the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) approach, this paper presents results for the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary that are generally in accordance with the present value theory of stock prices. Thus, the stock market indexes for these countries are leading indicators of the state of the real economy. However, as explained here, the results for Hungary must be interpreted with greater caution. In addition, as was expected, the results for Slovakia were very different from those of the other countries.

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  • Stefan Lyocsa & Eduard Baumohl & Tomas Vyrost, 2011. "The Stock Markets and Real Economic Activity," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 6-23, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:49:y:2011:i:4:p:6-23

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Peter, Klara Sabirianova & Svejnar, Jan & Terrell, Katherine, 2004. "Distance to the Efficiency Frontier and FDI Spillovers," IZA Discussion Papers 1332, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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    Cited by:

    1. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2011. "Unit-root and stationarity testing with empirical application on industrial production of CEE-4 countries," MPRA Paper 29648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lyócsa, Štefan, 2014. "Growth-returns nexus: Evidence from three Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 343-355.

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