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How Credible Are the Exchange Rate Regimes of the New EU Countries? : Empirical Evidence from Market Sentiment




European Union (EU) accession countries have strong incentives to stabilize their exchange rates with respect to the euro as the nominal anchor. We present a microstructure model of the foreign exchange market based on technical trading that allows us to categorize the de facto exchange rate regimes and derive a market-based measure of the credibility of these exchange rate regimes. Our empirical results indicate that in the run-up to EU accession, most Central and Eastern European countries enjoyed high credibility in their exchange rate management. However, some of these future Economic and Monetary Union participants will have to strengthen their efforts and further focus their exchange rate policy on stabilizing the euro exchange rate.

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  • Christian Bauer & Bernhard Herz, 2005. "How Credible Are the Exchange Rate Regimes of the New EU Countries? : Empirical Evidence from Market Sentiment," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 55-77, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:43:y:2005:i:3:p:55-77

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bob Beachill & Geoff Pugh, 1998. "Monetary Cooperation in Europe and the Problem of Differential Productivity Growth: an argument for a 'two-speed' Europe," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 445-457.
    2. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1998. "Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, July.
    4. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
    5. Kornélia Krajnyák & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1998. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies: What Scope for Real Appreciation?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 309-362, June.
    6. De Grauwe, Paul, 1996. "Monetary union and convergence economics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1091-1101, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Bauer & Paul De Grauwe & Stefan Reitz, 2007. "Exchange Rates Dynamics in a Target Zone – A Heterogeneous Expectations Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 2080, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Bauer, Christian & Herz, Bernhard, 2009. "Monetary and exchange rate stability in South and East Asia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 352-371, June.
    3. Dejan Živkov & Jovan Njegić & Mirela Momčilović & Ivan Milenković, 2016. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity in the European Emerging Economies," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2016(3), pages 253-270.
    4. Daniel Stavárek, 2006. "Assessment Of The Exchange Rate Volatility In New Eu Member States And Romania1," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(6), pages 20-29, April.
    5. Bauer, Christian & De Grauwe, Paul & Reitz, Stefan, 2009. "Exchange rate dynamics in a target zone--A heterogeneous expectations approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 329-344, February.
    6. Stavarek, Daniel, 2006. "Ability of the New EU Member States to Fulfill the Exchange Rate Stability Convergence Criterion," MPRA Paper 1202, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Beirne, John, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in Central and Eastern European Member States," Working Paper Series 1120, European Central Bank.

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