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Does a Bias in FOMC Policy Directives Help Predict Intermeeting Policy Changes?

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  • Lapp, John S
  • Pearce, Douglas K

Abstract

Since 1984 the FOMC has issued directives indicating a bias toward easing or tightening. This paper investigates the information content of these asymmetric directives for the likelihood of inter-meeting changes in policy during the Greenspan chairmanship. If policy is measured by the change in the average daily federal funds rate after a directive is issued, the results indicate that a bias predicts a significant change in the average funds rate. If policy is measured qualitatively by whether the target for the federal funds rate changed, a bias significantly affects the probability that the target will be changed.

Suggested Citation

  • Lapp, John S & Pearce, Douglas K, 2000. "Does a Bias in FOMC Policy Directives Help Predict Intermeeting Policy Changes?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 435-441, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:32:y:2000:i:3:p:435-41
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alan S. Blinder, 2008. "Talking about Monetary Policy: The Virtues (and Vices?) of Central Bank Communication," Working Papers 1048, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    2. Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2021. "The signaling effects of central bank tone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Nautz, Dieter & Schmidt, Sandra, 2009. "Monetary policy implementation and the federal funds rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1274-1284, July.
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Daniel L. Thornton & David C. Wheelock, 2000. "A history of the asymmetric policy directive," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 82(Sep), pages 1-16.
    7. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2010. "Do Federal Reserve communications help predict federal funds target rate decisions?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1014-1024, December.

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