Macroeconomic factors in the financial performance of large Argentine rgentine firms. Classification tree method

Generally, studies on the financial performance of firms have focused on accounting ratio analysis, leaving aside the effect of macroeconomic factors. This study aims to analyze the effect of economic factors on the profitability and operating incomes of large Argentine firms in a context of economic instability. To this end, a non-parametric methodology based on classification of trees is applied. The results show a strong interrelationship among macroeconomic variables, highlighting the need to consider economic scenarios rather than analyzing each variable in isolation. The industry sector emerges as the main determinant, as it significantly conditions the final effect of macroeconomic factors. The level of economic activity also appears as a relevant factor. Inflation shows a negative effect. However, both variables are largely conditioned by the evolution of the exchange rate. Finally, the study underlines the relevance of macroeconomic factors by demonstrating that they provide additional explanatory power concerning the profitability of the previous year. This study constitutes a relevant methodological contribution by incorporating non-parametric techniques in economic-financial analysis.