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Ágazati politika portfólióelméleti megközelítésben
[Industry policy in a portfolio-theory approach]

Author

Listed:
  • Bethlendi, András

Abstract

A tanulmány célja, hogy megvizsgálja a magyar nemzetgazdaság szerkezeti változásait a növekedés-stabilitás megközelítésében az elmúlt bő negyedszázad adatai alapján. Beazonosítottuk a nemzetgazdasági fejlődés üteme alatt, azzal közel együtt és azt jóval meghaladóan változó ágakat. Módszertanunk a pénzügyi portfólióknál alkalmazott modern portfólióelmélet megközelítése volt. Bemutattuk, hogy a nemzetgazdaság jelenlegi szerkezetéhez képest hosszabb távon akár nagymértékű pozitív elmozdulás is lehetséges. Elemzési keretünk alkalmas gazdaságpolitikai célok értékelésére is. A gazdaságpolitika által erősebben támogatott ágak közül az építőipar, a szálláshely-szolgáltatás és vendéglátás, valamint a mezőgazdaság felé történő elmozdulást nem találtuk hatékonynak növekedési-stabilitási szempontból. Vizsgálatunk megerősíti az újraiparosítási politikát kritizáló szakvéleményeket, amelyek szerint az újraiparosítás az ország átlagos növekedési ütemét nem fogja érdemben növelni. Ezt még annyival egészítjük ki, hogy stabilitási (kockázati) szempontból sem célravezető az erőltetése. Ugyanakkor egy specifikusabb, hálózatos iparpolitika javíthatja a fenti összefüggéseket.* Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: G11, O11, O14, O25.

Suggested Citation

  • Bethlendi, András, 2024. "Ágazati politika portfólióelméleti megközelítésben [Industry policy in a portfolio-theory approach]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 131-153.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:2166
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2024.2.131
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amitai Etzioni, 1983. "Reindustrialization Of America," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 2(4), pages 677-694, May.
    2. Harry Markowitz, 1956. "The optimization of a quadratic function subject to linear constraints," Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(1‐2), pages 111-133, March.
    3. Imre Lengyel & Zsofia Vas & Izabella Szakalne Kano & Balazs Lengyel, 2017. "Spatial differences of reindustrialization in a post-socialist economy: manufacturing in the Hungarian counties," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(8), pages 1416-1434, August.
    4. Shu-hen Chiang, 2009. "The effects of industrial diversification on regional unemployment in Taiwan: is the portfolio theory applicable?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 43(4), pages 947-962, December.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O25 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Industrial Policy

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