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A Time-Series Model of Stock Returns with a Positive Short-Term Correlation and a Negative Long-Term Correlation

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  • Khil, Jaeuk
  • Lee, Bong-Soo

Abstract

We study portfolio stock return behavior that exhibits both a positive autocorrelation over short horizons and a negative autocorrelation over long horizons. These autocorrelations are more significant in small size portfolios. Among various forms of temporary components in stock prices, an AR(2) component is the simplest model compatible with this pattern of returns, which yields an ARMA(2,2) model of stock returns. We show that the significance of this model is that it requires the presence of feedback trading, which is a form of irrational trades, and the market's slow adjustment to the market fundamentals, which is consistent with recent modelings of stock prices. We find that the variation of the temporary component becomes greater as the firm size gets smaller. This implies that the deviation from the market fundamentals is larger in small size portfolios than in large size portfolios. Copyright 2002 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Khil, Jaeuk & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2002. "A Time-Series Model of Stock Returns with a Positive Short-Term Correlation and a Negative Long-Term Correlation," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 381-404, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:18:y:2002:i:4:p:381-404
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    Cited by:

    1. Ai Deng, 2014. "Understanding Spurious Regression in Financial Economics," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 122-150.
    2. Eunju Lee, 2016. "Short selling and market mispricing," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 797-833, October.
    3. Nazliben, K. Korhan & Rodríguez, Juan Carlos, 2018. "Permanent shocks, signal extraction, and portfolio selection," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 47-68.
    4. Giner, Javier & Zakamulin, Valeriy, 2023. "A regime-switching model of stock returns with momentum and mean reversion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    5. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Juan Carlos Rodríguez & Alessandro Sbuelz, 2009. "Momentum and Mean Reversion in Strategic Asset Allocation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(7), pages 1199-1213, July.

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