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Behavioral and Institutional Determinants of Political Business Cycles

  • Baleiras, Rui Nuno
  • Santos, Vasco

The link between business cycles and the democratic political system has long been recognized by economists. However, the determinants of political business cycles are not well understood. We discuss several institutional and behavioral determinants of those cycles, such as revolving-door appointments, term limits and preferences of the incumbent politician, electorate and business community concerning the intertemporal pattern of public expenditure. We show how they affect the cycle's amplitude in the context of a rational-expectations model. Copyright 2000 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

Volume (Year): 104 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (July)
Pages: 121-47

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Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:104:y:2000:i:1-2:p:121-47
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  1. Guido Tabellini & Alberto Alesina, 1988. "Voting on the Budget Deficit," UCLA Economics Working Papers 539, UCLA Department of Economics.
  2. William D. Nordhaus, 1989. "Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(2), pages 1-68.
  3. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1986. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," NBER Working Papers 1838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Harrington Jr. , Joseph E., 1993. "The Impact of Reelection Pressures on the Fulfillment of Campaign Promises," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 71-97, January.
  5. Alberto Alesina & Alex Cukierman, 1987. "The Politics of Ambiguity," NBER Working Papers 2468, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Nuno Baleiras, Rui, 1997. "Electoral defeats and local political expenditure cycles," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 201-207, October.
  7. W. Robert Reed, 1994. "A Retrospective Voting Model With Heterogeneous Politicians," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 39-58, 03.
  8. Dick, Andrew R. & Lott, John Jr., 1993. "Reconciling voters' behavior with legislative term limits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-14, January.
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