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Behavioral and Institutional Determinants of Political Business Cycles

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  • Baleiras, Rui Nuno
  • Santos, Vasco

Abstract

The link between business cycles and the democratic political system has long been recognized by economists. However, the determinants of political business cycles are not well understood. We discuss several institutional and behavioral determinants of those cycles, such as revolving-door appointments, term limits and preferences of the incumbent politician, electorate and business community concerning the intertemporal pattern of public expenditure. We show how they affect the cycle's amplitude in the context of a rational-expectations model. Copyright 2000 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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  • Baleiras, Rui Nuno & Santos, Vasco, 2000. "Behavioral and Institutional Determinants of Political Business Cycles," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(1-2), pages 121-147, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:104:y:2000:i:1-2:p:121-47
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William D. Nordhaus, 1989. "Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(2), pages 1-68.
    2. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16.
    3. Gartner, Manfred, 1994. "Democracy, elections, and macroeconomic policy: Two decades of progress," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 85-109, May.
    4. Tabellini, Guido & Alesina, Alberto, 1990. "Voting on the Budget Deficit," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 37-49, March.
    5. Dick, Andrew R. & Lott, John Jr., 1993. "Reconciling voters' behavior with legislative term limits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-14, January.
    6. Alberto Alesina & Alex Cukierman, 1990. "The Politics of Ambiguity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(4), pages 829-850.
    7. Nuno Baleiras, Rui, 1997. "Electoral defeats and local political expenditure cycles," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 201-207, October.
    8. Harrington Jr. , Joseph E., 1993. "The Impact of Reelection Pressures on the Fulfillment of Campaign Promises," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 71-97, January.
    9. W. Robert Reed, 1994. "A Retrospective Voting Model With Heterogeneous Politicians," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 39-58, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.
    2. Baleiras, Rui Nuno & da Silva Costa, Jose, 2004. "To be or not to be in office again: an empirical test of a local political business cycle rationale," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 655-671, September.
    3. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
    4. repec:hal:journl:hal-01291401 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Nie, Huihua & Jiang, Minjie & Wang, Xianghong, 2013. "The impact of political cycle: Evidence from coalmine accidents in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 995-1011.

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