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The Likelihood of Various Stock Market Return Distributions, Part 2: Empirical Results

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  • Markowitz, Harry M
  • Usmen, Nilufer

Abstract

The present article shows how Bayesians should shift beliefs among a family of models concerning the probability distribution of daily changes in the Standard & Poor 500 Index, given a particular sample. The preceding article in this issue showed that classical (R. A. Fisher, Neyman-Pearson) inference can be highly misleading for Bayesians, as can the assumption of a diffuse prior. The present article discusses how to bound Bayesian shifts in belief for compound hypotheses generally, as well as the specific shifts in beliefs among simple and compound hypotheses implied by the particular sample. Copyright 1996 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Markowitz, Harry M & Usmen, Nilufer, 1996. "The Likelihood of Various Stock Market Return Distributions, Part 2: Empirical Results," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 221-247, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:13:y:1996:i:3:p:221-47
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    Cited by:

    1. Panayiotis Theodossiou, 1998. "Financial Data and the Skewed Generalized T Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(12-Part-1), pages 1650-1661, December.
    2. Markowitz, Harry, 2014. "Mean–variance approximations to expected utility," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 346-355.
    3. Jiang, Chonghui & Ma, Yongkai & An, Yunbi, 2016. "Portfolio selection with a systematic skewness constraint," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 393-405.
    4. Kevin Fergusson & Eckhard Platen, 2006. "On the Distributional Characterization of Daily Log-Returns of a World Stock Index," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 19-38.
    5. repec:lrk:eeaart:36_1_18 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Lord Mensah & R. K. Avuglah & Vincent Dedu, 2013. "Allocation of Assets on the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE)," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(2), pages 108-114, April.
    7. Trapani, Lorenzo, 2016. "Testing for (in)finite moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 57-68.

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