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The Likelihood of Various Stock Market Return Distributions, Part 1: Principles of Inference

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  • Markowitz, Harry M
  • Usmen, Nilufer

Abstract

This is the first of two articles which apply certain principles of inference to a practical, financial question. The present article argues and cites arguments which contend that decision making should be Bayesian, that classical (R. A. Fisher, Neyman-Pearson) inference can be highly misleading for Bayesians as can the use of diffuse priors, and that Bayesian statisticians should show remote clients with a variety of priors how a sample implies shifts in their beliefs. We also consider practical implications of the fact that human decision makers and their statisticians cannot fully emulate Savage's rational decision maker. Copyright 1996 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Markowitz, Harry M & Usmen, Nilufer, 1996. "The Likelihood of Various Stock Market Return Distributions, Part 1: Principles of Inference," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 207-219, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:13:y:1996:i:3:p:207-19
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Panayiotis Theodossiou, 1998. "Financial Data and the Skewed Generalized T Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(12-Part-1), pages 1650-1661, December.
    2. Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1997. "Book-to-market, dividend yield, and expected market returns: A time-series analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 169-203, May.
    3. Markowitz, Harry, 2014. "Mean–variance approximations to expected utility," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 346-355.
    4. Jiang, Chonghui & Ma, Yongkai & An, Yunbi, 2016. "Portfolio selection with a systematic skewness constraint," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 393-405.
    5. Kevin Fergusson & Eckhard Platen, 2006. "On the Distributional Characterization of Daily Log-Returns of a World Stock Index," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 19-38.
    6. repec:lrk:eeaart:36_1_18 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Lord Mensah & R. K. Avuglah & Vincent Dedu, 2013. "Allocation of Assets on the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE)," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(2), pages 108-114, April.
    8. Trapani, Lorenzo, 2016. "Testing for (in)finite moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 57-68.
    9. Turnbull, Bradley C. & Ghosh, Sujit K., 2014. "Unimodal density estimation using Bernstein polynomials," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 13-29.

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