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Modeling Spatial and Temporal House Price Patterns: A Comparison of Four Models

  • Bradford Case

    ()

  • John Clapp

    ()

  • Robin Dubin

    ()

  • Mauricio Rodriguez

    ()

This research reports results from a competition on modeling spatial and temporal components of house prices. A large, well-documented database was prepared and made available to anyone wishing to join the competition. To prevent data snooping, out-of-sample observations were withheld; they were deposited with one individual who did not enter the competition, but had the responsibility of calculating out-of-sample statistics for results submitted by the others. The competition turned into a cooperative effort, resulting in enhancements to previous methods including: a localized version of Dubin's kriging model, a kriging version of Clapp's local regression model, and a local application of Case's earlier work on dividing a geographic housing market into districts. The results indicate the importance of nearest neighbor transactions for out-of-sample predictions: spatial trend analysis and census tract variables do not perform nearly as well as neighboring residuals.

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Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

Volume (Year): 29 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (09)
Pages: 167-191

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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:29:y:2004:i:2:p:167-191
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

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