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Overbuilding, Real Estate Lending Decisions, and the Regional Economic Base

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  • McNulty, James E

Abstract

The primary purpose of this paper is to evaluate the causes of overbuilding in the context of economic base theory. A second and closely related purpose is to determine if the economic base multiplier effect is stronger in the long run. Construction decisions depend on the strength of the local economy. Since basic activity is highly cyclical, if there are significant lags in the multiplier process running from basic to nonbasic sectors, then growth in nonbasic employment will continue when the basic sector slows or declines. Hence, overbuilding may be, in part, a result of false signals about future growth in the local economy to builders, developers and lenders at the time a project is conceived. In addition, one of the important sources of the lags in the multiplier process is the construction sector. Potential solutions to overbuilding are discussed in an economic base context. The implications for bank regulation, bank lending and feasibility analysis are discussed. Copyright 1995 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • McNulty, James E, 1995. "Overbuilding, Real Estate Lending Decisions, and the Regional Economic Base," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 37-53, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:11:y:1995:i:1:p:37-53
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen A. Pyhrr & Stephen E. Roulac & Waldo L. Born, 1999. "Real Estate Cycles and Their Strategic Implications for Investors and Portfolio Managers in the Global Economy," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 7-68.
    2. Chin-Oh Chang & Ming-Chi Chen, 2014. "Construction financing in Taiwan: current state and policy regime," Chapters, in: Susan Wachter & Man Cho & Moon Joong Tcha (ed.), The Global Financial Crisis and Housing, chapter 8, pages 180-207, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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