IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/compec/v66y2025i1d10.1007_s10614-024-10710-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Examination of Bitcoin Hedging, Diversification and Safe-Haven Ability During Financial Crisis: Evidence from Equity, Bonds, Precious Metals and Exchange Rate Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Mirzat Ullah

    (Ural Federal University)

  • Kazi Sohag

    (Ural Federal University)

  • Svetlana Doroshenko

    (Ural Federal University)

  • Oleg Mariev

    (Ural Federal University)

Abstract

This study examines the investment strategies of Bitcoin along with equity, bonds, precious metals and the exchange rate volatility in the context of Russia–Ukraine conflict. The study analyzes daily data from January 1, 2018, to May 30, 2023, with unveiling a saga of financial resilience and strategic foresight. Against the backdrop of geopolitical upheaval, this study employs three sophisticated GARCH estimation models, artfully deciphering the nuanced hedging, diversification, and safe haven attributes of Bitcoin along with conventional financial assets within the Russian financial milieu. Within this intricate tapestry, the GJR-GARCH model emerges as a virtuoso, offering unparalleled precision in forecasting volatility and unraveling correlations among the underlined assets. Bitcoin's prowess as a hedge comes to the forefront, bestowing investors with the strategic advantage of risk diversification, while government bonds observed least attractive assets during the crisis period. Delving deeper into risk assessment, this research harnesses the potent tools of Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). These estimations paint a vivid portrait of potential portfolio losses during times of crisis, providing a compass for prudent financial decision-making. In the crucible of crisis, Bitcoin emerges as a beacon of investment, witnessing a remarkable surge in adoption amidst heightened volatility and uncertainty. A symphony of market forces unfolds, where negative news resonates with greater intensity than its positive counterpart, underscoring the imperative of judicious asset allocation for effective risk mitigation. This study not only unfurls a compelling narrative for astute investors but also serves as a compass for policymakers navigating the treacherous waters of high market volatility and geopolitical uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Mirzat Ullah & Kazi Sohag & Svetlana Doroshenko & Oleg Mariev, 2025. "Examination of Bitcoin Hedging, Diversification and Safe-Haven Ability During Financial Crisis: Evidence from Equity, Bonds, Precious Metals and Exchange Rate Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 66(1), pages 835-867, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:66:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10614-024-10710-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-024-10710-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10614-024-10710-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10614-024-10710-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    2. Fang, Libing & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Does global economic uncertainty matter for the volatility and hedging effectiveness of Bitcoin?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 29-36.
    3. Ahmed BenSaïda, 2023. "The linkage between Bitcoin and foreign exchanges in developed and emerging markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, December.
    4. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    5. Ratner, Mitchell & Chiu, Chih-Chieh (Jason), 2013. "Hedging stock sector risk with credit default swaps," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 18-25.
    6. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Nguyen, Thi Thu Ha & Karim, Sitara & Lucey, Brian M., 2023. "Extreme downside risk transmission between green cryptocurrencies and energy markets: The diversification benefits," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    7. Brandt, Michael W. & Jones, Christopher S., 2006. "Volatility Forecasting With Range-Based EGARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 470-486, October.
    8. Dharen Kumar Pandey & Rahul Kumar, 2023. "Russia-Ukraine War and the global tourism sector: A 13-day tale," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(5), pages 692-700, March.
    9. Achraf Ghorbel & Wajdi Frikha & Yasmine Snene Manzli, 2022. "Testing for asymmetric non-linear short- and long-run relationships between crypto-currencies and stock markets," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(3), pages 387-425, September.
    10. Umar, Zaghum & Polat, Onur & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2022. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the connectedness of financial markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    11. Yousaf, Imran & Patel, Ritesh & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "The reaction of G20+ stock markets to the Russia–Ukraine conflict “black-swan” event: Evidence from event study approach," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    12. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2022. "Does oil connect differently with prominent assets during war? Analysis of intra-day data during the Russia-Ukraine saga," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    13. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    14. Chemkha, Rahma & BenSaïda, Ahmed & Ghorbel, Ahmed & Tayachi, Tahar, 2021. "Hedge and safe haven properties during COVID-19: Evidence from Bitcoin and gold," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 71-85.
    15. Goodell, John W. & Corbet, Shaen & Yadav, Miklesh Prasad & Kumar, Satish & Sharma, Sudhi & Malik, Kunjana, 2022. "Time and frequency connectedness of green equity indices: Uncovering a socially important link to Bitcoin," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    16. S. Boubaker & Adel Sarea & T. Choudhury, 2023. "Guest Editorial: Implications of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on the Global Financial Markets," Post-Print hal-04458205, HAL.
    17. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Does Bitcoin hedge global uncertainty? Evidence from wavelet-based quantile-in-quantile regressions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 87-95.
    18. De Pace, Pierangelo & Rao, Jayant, 2023. "Comovement and instability in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 173-200.
    19. Umar, Muhammad & Riaz, Yasir & Yousaf, Imran, 2022. "Impact of Russian-Ukraine war on clean energy, conventional energy, and metal markets: Evidence from event study approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    20. Achraf Ghorbel & Sahar Loukil & Walid Bahloul, 2022. "Connectedness between cryptocurrencies, gold and stock markets in the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic," European Journal of Management and Business Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(4), pages 466-487, June.
    21. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    22. Mirzat Ullah, 2024. "Dynamic Connectedness between Crypto and Conventional Financial Assets: Novel Findings from Russian Financial Market," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 23(1), pages 110-135.
    23. Chuanjian Li & Zhi-Wei Su & Tanzeela Yaqoob & Yumna Sajid, 2022. "COVID-19 and currency market: a comparative analysis of exchange rate movement in China and USA during pandemic," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 2477-2492, December.
    24. Shabeer Khan & Mirzat Ullah & Mohammad Rahim Shahzad & Uzair Abdullah Khan & Umair Khan & Sayed M. Eldin & Abeer M. Alotaibi, 2022. "Spillover Connectedness among Global Uncertainties and Sectorial Indices of Pakistan: Evidence from Quantile Connectedness Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-16, November.
    25. Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo, 2016. "Hedging capabilities of bitcoin. Is it the virtual gold?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 139-144.
    26. Mohamed Beraich & Karim Amzile & Jaouad Laamire & Omar Zirari & Mohamed Amine Fadali, 2022. "Volatility Spillover Effects of the US, European and Chinese Financial Markets in the Context of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-18, October.
    27. Wang, Yihan & Bouri, Elie & Fareed, Zeeshan & Dai, Yuhui, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and the systemic risk in the commodity markets under the war in Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    28. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi & Wen, Danyan & Zhao, Longfeng, 2019. "When Bitcoin meets economic policy uncertainty (EPU): Measuring risk spillover effect from EPU to Bitcoin," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    29. Li, Yi & Lucey, Brian & Urquhart, Andrew, 2023. "Can altcoins act as hedges or safe-havens for Bitcoin?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    30. Palazzi, Rafael Baptista & Júnior, Gerson de Souza Raimundo & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus, 2021. "The dynamic relationship between bitcoin and the foreign exchange market: A nonlinear approach to test causality between bitcoin and currencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    31. Baur, Dirk G. & Hong, KiHoon & Lee, Adrian D., 2018. "Bitcoin: Medium of exchange or speculative assets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 177-189.
    32. Ting-Hsuan Chen & Mu-Yen Chen & Guan-Ting Du, 2021. "The Determinants of Bitcoin’s Price: Utilization of GARCH and Machine Learning Approaches," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 267-280, January.
    33. Tosun, Onur Kemal & Eshraghi, Arman, 2022. "Corporate decisions in times of war: Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    34. Cheah, Eng-Tuck & Fry, John, 2015. "Speculative bubbles in Bitcoin markets? An empirical investigation into the fundamental value of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 32-36.
    35. Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian & Urquhart, Andrew & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies as a financial asset: A systematic analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 182-199.
    36. Corbet, Shaen & Meegan, Andrew & Larkin, Charles & Lucey, Brian & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2018. "Exploring the dynamic relationships between cryptocurrencies and other financial assets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 28-34.
    37. Walid Mensi & Mariya Gubareva & Hee-Un Ko & Xuan Vinh Vo & Sang Hoon Kang, 2023. "Tail spillover effects between cryptocurrencies and uncertainty in the gold, oil, and stock markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, December.
    38. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "A time–frequency comovement and causality relationship between Bitcoin hashrate and energy commodity markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    39. Hassan, M. Kabir & Hasan, Md. Bokhtiar & Halim, Zairihan Abdul & Maroney, Neal & Rashid, Md. Mamunur, 2022. "Exploring the dynamic spillover of cryptocurrency environmental attention across the commodities, green bonds, and environment-related stocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Urquhart, Andrew & Zhang, Hanxiong, 2019. "Is Bitcoin a hedge or safe haven for currencies? An intraday analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 49-57.
    2. Just, Małgorzata & Echaust, Krzysztof, 2024. "Cryptocurrencies against stock market risk: New insights into hedging effectiveness," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    3. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
    4. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Assaf, Ata & Mokni, Khaled, 2022. "When bitcoin lost its position: Cryptocurrency uncertainty and the dynamic spillover among cryptocurrencies before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. Chu, Jeffrey & Chan, Stephen & Zhang, Yuanyuan, 2021. "Bitcoin versus high-performance technology stocks in diversifying against global stock market indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 580(C).
    6. Giménez Roche, Gabriel A. & Noël, Antoine & Sauce, Loïc, 2025. "Bitcoin trade volume in decentralized markets: International evidence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    7. Narayan, Shivani & Kumar, Dilip, 2024. "Unveiling interconnectedness and risk spillover among cryptocurrencies and other asset classes," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Svetoslav Borisov, 2024. "Bitcoin – Hedge or Speculative Asset: Analysis of Its Role and Nature," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 148-170.
    9. Bouteska, Ahmed & Hassan, M. Kabir & Rashid, Mamunur & Bilgin, Mehmet Hüseyin, 2024. "The dynamics of bonds, commodities and bitcoin based on NARDL approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 58-70.
    10. Fang, Libing & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Does global economic uncertainty matter for the volatility and hedging effectiveness of Bitcoin?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 29-36.
    11. Nguyen, Bao Khac Quoc & Pham, Dung Thi Ngoc, 2025. "Investing during a Fintech revolution: The hedge and safe haven properties of Bitcoin and Ethereum," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA).
    12. Cynthia Weiyi Cai & Rui Xue & Bi Zhou, 2023. "Cryptocurrency puzzles: a comprehensive review and re-introduction," Journal of Accounting Literature, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 26-50, June.
    13. Eross, Andrea & McGroarty, Frank & Urquhart, Andrew & Wolfe, Simon, 2019. "The intraday dynamics of bitcoin," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 71-81.
    14. Hampl, Filip & Vágnerová Linnertová, Dagmar & Horváth, Matúš, 2024. "Crypto havens during war times? Evidence from the Russian invasion of Ukraine," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Leandro Maciel, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies value‐at‐risk and expected shortfall: Do regime‐switching volatility models improve forecasting?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4840-4855, July.
    16. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Tao, Ran, 2021. "BitCoin: A new basket for eggs?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 896-907.
    17. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "A Survey on Volatility Fluctuations in the Decentralized Cryptocurrency Financial Assets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-46, June.
    18. Kreuzer, Christian & Laschinger, Ralf & Priberny, Christopher & Benninghoff, Sven, 2024. "Cryptocurrencies as a vehicle for capital exodus: Evidence from the Russian–Ukrainian crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    19. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Exploring the Driving Forces of the Bitcoin Exchange Rate Dynamics: An EGARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 89445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Takuji Kinkyo, 2022. "Hedging capabilities of Bitcoin for Asian currencies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1769-1784, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:66:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10614-024-10710-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.