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PLAM Default Risk

  • Peter J. Elmer

    (Resolution Trust Corporation 801 Seventeenth Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20434-0001)

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    This article combines cross-sectional time series data on real estate appreciation rates during the 1974 to 1989 period with an option-based model of mortgage default to simulate the default and loss characteristics of price level-adjusted mortgages (PLAMs) and standard fixed-payment mortgages (FPMs). The analysis finds significantly higher default risk for PLAMs than recognized by previous research. In particular, the expected loss of twenty- and thirty-year PLAMs with common initial loan-to-value (LTV) ratios is two to seven times higher than the expected loss of comparable FPMs and these PLAMs have much longer periods of high default risk than FPMs. Maturity must be reduced to fifteen years in order to bring PLAM default risk approximately in line with FPM default risk for most LTVs.

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    File URL: http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol07n02/v07p157.pdf
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    Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

    Volume (Year): 7 (1992)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 157-168

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    Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:7:n:2:1992:p:157-168
    Contact details of provider: Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
    Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/Email:

    Order Information: Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
    Web: http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/about/get.htm Email:


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    1. Richard L. Cooperstein & F. Stevens Redburn & Harry G. Meyers, 1991. "Modelling Mortgage Terminations in Turbulent Times," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(4), pages 473-494.
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