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The role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in a low-income country:evidence from Bangladesh

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  • Omar H.M.N. Bashar0

    (Deakin University, Australia)

Abstract

This paper explores the relative role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in affecting the output level and inflation rate in a low-income country vulnerable to various economic shocks. The study uses Bangladesh data, and following Cover et al (2006), employs a modification of the Blanchard-Quah (BQ) approach, in which the two shocks are allowed to be correlated. Strong evidence is found for the hypothesis that aggregate demand and supply shocks are interrelated in Bangladesh. For the case in which causality is assumed to be running from demand to supply shocks, it was found that an independent supply shock plays significant role for fluctuations in inflation, which was absent in the standard BQ model. The results suggest that a tightening of monetary policy may lead to an adverse effect on the long-run growth potential and some supply-side policies may be required to supplement contractionary monetary policy in combating inflation in Bangladesh.

Suggested Citation

  • Omar H.M.N. Bashar0, 2011. "The role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in a low-income country:evidence from Bangladesh," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 44(2), pages 243-264, January-M.
    • Handle: RePEc:jda:journl:vol.44:year:2011:issue2:pp:243-264
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    Keywords

    Aggregate Demand and Supply Shocks; Blanchard-Quah Decompositions; Monetary Policy; Bangladesh;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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