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Expectation and Housing Price Dynamics Following Deregulation in Korea



This paper offers an explanation for the existence of price control on new houses in Korea, which is deemed both inefficient and inequitable. This phenomenon cannot be explained by the conventional model of rent-seeking or the capture theory of regulation. Instead, it is attributable to the popular belief that the removal of the price regulation will lead to the increase in the overall housing price by increasing the demand for existing houses that are a perfect substitute for new houses. However, the paper, using a stock-adjustment model of the housing market, demonstrates that the claimed outcome cannot materialize under perfect foresight or adaptive expectation. The outcome is possible in the short run under a peculiar expectation scheme of a self-fulfilling nature. But even in this case, the price increase will be a one-time event and in the long-run overall housing prices will fall below the level that would prevail if the price regulations were maintained.

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  • Chung-Ho Kim & Kyung-Hwan Kim, 1999. "Expectation and Housing Price Dynamics Following Deregulation in Korea," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 2(1), pages 126-142.
  • Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:02:n:01:1999:p:126-142

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Garber, Peter M, 1990. "Famous First Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 35-54, Spring.
    2. Manuel Gottlieb, 1976. "Long Swings in Urban Development," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gott76-1, January.
    3. DiPasquale Denise & Wheaton William C., 1994. "Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-27, January.
    4. Clapp John M. & Giaccotto Carmelo, 1994. "The Influence of Economic Variables on Local House Price Dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 161-183, September.
    5. Smith, Lawrence B. & Ho, Michael H. C., 1996. "The Relative Price Differential between Higher and Lower Priced Homes," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, March.
    6. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273.
    7. Hali J. Edison & Pongsak Luangaram & Marcus Miller, 1998. "Asset bubbles, domino effects and 'lifeboats': elements of the East Asian crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 606, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    More about this item


    Price control; self-fulfilling expectation; short-term dynamics; Korea;

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services


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