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Public debt and GDP growth in BRICS: unravelling time-scale complexities through wavelet analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ajaz Ayoub

    (Research Scholar, Department of Humanities, Social Sciences & Management, National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, J&K, India)

  • Tahir Ahmad Wani

    (Assistant Professor, Department of Humanities, Social Sciences & Management, National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, J&K, India)

  • Abid Sultan

    (Assistant Professor, Department of Agriculture, Statistics & Economics, Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, Shalimar, Srinagar, J&K, India)

Abstract

This study examines the impact of public debt on economic growth in BRIC nations - Brazil, Russia, India, and China - over 1996-2022 using wavelet coherence and cross-wavelet analysis to capture both short-term dynamics and longterm trends. The findings reveal a positive but heterogeneous co-movement between public debt and GDP, intensifying during COVID-19. Russia exhibits short-to-medium-term co-movement, while Brazil, India, and China show mediumto-long-term patterns. In Brazil and Russia, public debt drives growth during economic distress, whereas in India and China, growth leads to debt accumulation. Granger causality tests confirm the directionality of these relationships, supporting the robustness of the wavelet-based results. The study highlights the need for tailored debt management strategies aligned with country-specific economic conditions to support sustained and inclusive growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Ajaz Ayoub & Tahir Ahmad Wani & Abid Sultan, 2025. "Public debt and GDP growth in BRICS: unravelling time-scale complexities through wavelet analysis," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 49(3), pages 369-393.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipf:psejou:v:49:y:2025:i:3:p:369-393
    DOI: 10.3326/pse.49.3.2
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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