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Sensitivity Analysis and Performance Extrapolation for Computer Simulation Models

Author

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  • Reuven Y. Rubinstein

    (Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel)

Abstract

We present a method for deriving sensitivities of performance measures for computer simulation models. We show that both the sensitivities (derivatives, gradients, Hessians, etc.) and the performance measure can be estimated simultaneously from the same simulation. Our method is based on probability measure transformations derived from the efficient score. We also present a rather general procedure from which perturbation analysis and our method can be viewed as particular cases. Applications to reliability models and stochastic shortest path networks are given.

Suggested Citation

  • Reuven Y. Rubinstein, 1989. "Sensitivity Analysis and Performance Extrapolation for Computer Simulation Models," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 37(1), pages 72-81, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:37:y:1989:i:1:p:72-81
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.37.1.72
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Pan & Lu, Zhenzhou & Zhang, Kaichao & Xiao, Sinan & Yue, Zhufeng, 2018. "Copula-based decomposition approach for the derivative-based sensitivity of variance contributions with dependent variables," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 437-450.
    2. L. Jeff Hong & Sandeep Juneja & Jun Luo, 2014. "Estimating Sensitivities of Portfolio Credit Risk Using Monte Carlo," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 26(4), pages 848-865, November.
    3. Wang, Pan & Lu, Zhenzhou & Ren, Bo & Cheng, Lei, 2013. "The derivative based variance sensitivity analysis for the distribution parameters and its computation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 305-315.
    4. Isadora Antoniano‐Villalobos & Emanuele Borgonovo & Sumeda Siriwardena, 2018. "Which Parameters Are Important? Differential Importance Under Uncertainty," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(11), pages 2459-2477, November.
    5. Gilles Pag`es & Olivier Pironneau & Guillaume Sall, 2016. "Vibrato and automatic differentiation for high order derivatives and sensitivities of financial options," Papers 1606.06143, arXiv.org.
    6. Li, Jinghui & Mosleh, Ali & Kang, Rui, 2011. "Likelihood ratio gradient estimation for dynamic reliability applications," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(12), pages 1667-1679.
    7. Gilles Pages & Olivier Pironneau & Guillaume Sall, 2015. "Vibrato and Automatic Differentiation for High Order Derivatives and Sensitivities of Financial Options," Working Papers hal-01234637, HAL.
    8. Yongqiang Wang & Michael C. Fu & Steven I. Marcus, 2012. "A New Stochastic Derivative Estimator for Discontinuous Payoff Functions with Application to Financial Derivatives," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(2), pages 447-460, April.
    9. Schweinberger, Michael & Snijders, Tom A.B., 2007. "Markov models for digraph panel data: Monte Carlo-based derivative estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(9), pages 4465-4483, May.
    10. Marvin K. Nakayama & Perwez Shahabuddin, 1998. "Likelihood Ratio Derivative Estimation for Finite-Time Performance Measures in Generalized Semi-Markov Processes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(10), pages 1426-1441, October.
    11. Gong, Wei-Bo & Schulzrinne, Henning, 1992. "Application of smoothed perturbation analysis to probabilistic routing," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 467-485.
    12. Sridhar Bashyam & Michael C. Fu, 1994. "Application of perturbation analysis to a class of periodic review (s, S) inventory systems," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(1), pages 47-80, February.
    13. Xuefei Lu & Alessandro Rudi & Emanuele Borgonovo & Lorenzo Rosasco, 2020. "Faster Kriging: Facing High-Dimensional Simulators," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 233-249, January.

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