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An Assessment of Tritium Supply Alternatives in Support of the US Nuclear Weapons Stockpile

Author

Listed:
  • Detlof von Winterfeldt

    (Decision Insights, Inc., 2062 Business Center Drive, Suite 110, Irvine, California 92612)

  • Eric Schweitzer

    (Office of Defense Programs, US Department of Energy, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20585)

Abstract

Nuclear weapons require the periodic replacement of tritium, a radioactive gas that decays at approximately 5.5 percent per year. Currently no tritium-supply facility exists in the US, and due to the decay, the tritium inventory will fall below the required reserve level in 2011. To decide how to fill this projected gap, the US Department of Energy assessed 10 tritium-supply alternatives, including several types of new reactors, an accelerator, and the use of commercial reactors. The DOE compared the alternatives with respect to three objectives: production assurance, cost, and environmental impacts. We combined a dynamic production-simulation model and probabilistic assessments of schedule, production capacity, and availability risks to predict the production behavior of each alternative over 40 years. We also assessed the cost and environmental risks. The secretary of energy decided to pursue both the commercial-reactor and accelerator alternatives, based, in part, on the results of this analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Detlof von Winterfeldt & Eric Schweitzer, 1998. "An Assessment of Tritium Supply Alternatives in Support of the US Nuclear Weapons Stockpile," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 28(1), pages 92-112, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:28:y:1998:i:1:p:92-112
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.28.1.92
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Robin L. Dillon & Vicki M. Bier & Richard Sheffield John & Abdullah Althenayyan, 2023. "Closing the Gap Between Decision Analysis and Policy Analysts Before the Next Pandemic," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 20(2), pages 109-132, June.
    2. M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell & Robin L. Dillon, 2006. "The Respective Roles of Risk and Decision Analyses in Decision Support," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(4), pages 220-232, December.
    3. Donald L. Keefer & Craig W. Kirkwood & James L. Corner, 2004. "Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications, 1990–2001," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 4-22, March.
    4. Ralph L. Keeney, 2004. "Making Better Decision Makers," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(4), pages 193-204, December.
    5. Zhou, P. & Ang, B.W. & Poh, K.L., 2006. "Decision analysis in energy and environmental modeling: An update," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 2604-2622.
    6. Robin L. Dillon & Richard John & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2002. "Assessment of Cost Uncertainties for Large Technology Projects: A Methodology and an Application," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 32(4), pages 52-66, August.
    7. Jyrki Wallenius & James S. Dyer & Peter C. Fishburn & Ralph E. Steuer & Stanley Zionts & Kalyanmoy Deb, 2008. "Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Multiattribute Utility Theory: Recent Accomplishments and What Lies Ahead," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(7), pages 1336-1349, July.

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