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Viabilidad de introducir contratos de derivados de gas natural en el Mercado Mexicano de Derivados: Un enfoque Hubbert-Grey

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Enrique García Pérez

    (Instituto Politécnico Nacional, México)

  • Francisco Ortiz Arango

    (Universidad Panamericana, México)

  • Salvador Cruz Aké

    (Instituto Politécnico Nacional, México)

Abstract

A partir de la promulgación de la reforma energética de 2013 en México, se abrió la posibilidad de incorporar en el Mercado Mexicano de Derivados (MexDer) contratos de derivados de gas natural. Esta investigación examina la viabilidad de introducir contratos de derivados de gas natural en el MexDer. Para ello, la proyección de la oferta de gas natural se calcula con el modelo de Hubert, y la de la demanda se obtiene mediante una novedosa combinación de los modelos de Grey y de Vasicek. Posteriormente mediante simulación Monte Carlo se calculan las primas de un contrato de futuros y uno de opciones europeas sobre el precio del gas natural, los cuales fueron diseñados acorde a la normatividad del MexDer. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que por el momento dichos contratos no son viables, fundamentalmente por el reducido volumen de los posibles contratos de cobertura, lo anterior constituye un resultado relevante para las finanzas del país, dado que actualmente el gobierno mexicano solo contrata coberturas petroleras en mercados de derivados extranjeros.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Enrique García Pérez & Francisco Ortiz Arango & Salvador Cruz Aké, 2021. "Viabilidad de introducir contratos de derivados de gas natural en el Mercado Mexicano de Derivados: Un enfoque Hubbert-Grey," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(1), pages 1-35, Enero - M.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:16:y:2021:i:1:a:6
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    File URL: https://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/479
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reforma energética; gas natural; contratos de derivados; MEXDER;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • L19 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Other
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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