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México 2020-2024: dos escenarios macroeconómicos

Author

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  • Eduardo Loría

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México)

Abstract

En un contexto de alta incertidumbre interna que se ha agravado por el complejo ambiente económico, político (y ahora de salud) mundial, se hace un análisis numérico proveniente de simulaciones estocásticas dinámicas derivadas de Eudoxio: modelo macroeconométrico de la economía mexicana (Loría, 2019a) que genera dos escenarios macroeconómicos para México (inercial y pesimista) en sus principales variables de actividad económica para el horizonte 2020-2024. El escenario inercial arroja un crecimiento medio del PIB y del empleo de 1.27% y 1.6% contra 0.64% y 1.04% del escenario pesimista, respectivamente. No se visualiza un escenario optimista debido a la ausencia de articulación de políticas y hechos que fomenten el crecimiento económico mediante el fortalecimiento de la seguridad y, por tanto, de la confianza empresarial. Para considerar un escenario optimista se necesitaría de un verdadero cambio de políticas y del discurso oficial para recuperar aspectos fundamentales de la reforma energética y atender los enormes desafíos que están presentado la criminalidad los aspectos fiscales sobre el crecimiento económico.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Loría, 2020. "México 2020-2024: dos escenarios macroeconómicos," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 15(2), pages 145-172, Abril - J.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:15:y:2020:i:2:p:145-172
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    File URL: https://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/482
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    modelos macroeconométricos; escenarios; simulaciones estocásticas dinámicas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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