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Monetary Policy, Deflation, and Economic History: Lessons for the Bank of Japan

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  • Cargill, Thomas-F

    (University of Nevada)

Abstract

The paper discusses Bank of Japan policy during the 1990s, especially the late 1990s, in the context of the historical experiences of the United States, Sweden, and Japan in the 1930s. Sharp differences exist between Japan in the 1990s and the 1930s environment; however, this paper takes the position that there are qualitative similarities which cannot be ignored in terms of financial distress, downward price trends, debate over appropriate central bank policy, and how legal independence may constrain appropriate central bank policy. The paper reviews the evolution of views about policy targets from the 1930s to the present to show how price stability reemerged as the primary policy target. Evidence on the success central banks have attained in achieving price stability is reviewed. The evidence shows that claims central banks have overemphasized controlling inflation at the expense of deflation are incorrect with the exception of Japan. The paper reviews the role of the Federal Reserve in the 1930s to show that failure to prevent deflation during the critical 1929?33 period had adverse impacts on the economy and resulted in rendering the Federal Reserve de facto dependent on the government despite its legal independence. The paper then considers the experiences of Japan and Sweden in the 1930s to provide counter-examples of how the U.S. economy might have responded to central bank policy designed to prevent deflation. In both cases, policies explicitly designed to reverse the downward movement in prices reduced the economic and financial distress in those countries compared to the United States. The paper draws implications from the historical record for Bank of Japan policy and suggests that more aggressive action would have been appropriate in the 1990s and that further institutional change toward inflation targeting should be considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Cargill, Thomas-F, 2001. "Monetary Policy, Deflation, and Economic History: Lessons for the Bank of Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 113-134, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:19:y:2001:i:s1:p:113-134
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. James Harrigan & Kenneth Kuttner, 2004. "Lost Decade in Translation: Did the US Learn from Japan's Post-Bubble Mistakes?," NBER Working Papers 10938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Raphael Fischer & Gunther Schnabl, 2018. "Regional heterogeneity, the rise of public debt and monetary policy in post-bubble Japan: lessons for the EMU," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 405-428, April.
    3. Martin Grančay, 2012. "Vplyv subvencií na celkovú užitočnosť v malom a veľkom štáte - neoklasický grafický model," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 16-26.
    4. Klaudia Pyteľová, 2012. "Špecifiká postavenia štátu ako subjektu medzinárodného práva," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 109-118.
    5. Cargill, Thomas, 2004. "Japan’s Economic and Financial Stagnation and the Possibility of a Second Lost Decade," EIJS Working Paper Series 199, Stockholm School of Economics, The European Institute of Japanese Studies.
    6. Lucia Kužmová, 2012. "Inštitucionálne modely hospodárskej diplomacie - príklad Nemecka, Rakúska, Švajčiarska a Slovenska," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 153-169.
    7. Michal Jurek & Pawel Marszalek, 2015. "Policy alternatives for the relationship between ECB monetary and financial policies and new member states," Working papers wpaper112, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    8. Katarína Cséfalvayová, 2012. "Právna úprava zdieľania medzinárodných vodných tokov: kritické zhodnotenie," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 182-191.
    9. Jana Drutarovská, 2012. "Vplyv špekulácií na vývoj cien ropy," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 192-201.
    10. Veronika Fodorová, 2012. "Tradičné teórie medzinárodných vzťahov ako východisko pre rozvoj teórií európskej integrácie," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 170-181.
    11. Monika Mrlinová, 2012. "Vývoj multilaterálních dohod ve světovém obchodě v kontextu historie až po současnost," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 53-72.
    12. Ľudmila Lipková, 2012. "Ekonomické reformy v Kórejskej ľudovodemokratickej republike," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 36-52.
    13. Marta Zágoršeková, 2012. "Zen a buddhistická tradícia súčasného Japonska," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 7-15.
    14. Mikuláš Černota, 2012. "Spoločenské a ekologické dopady zvyšovania hladiny morí na mobilitu ľudskej populácie," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 86-98.
    15. Ľubomír Čech, 2012. "Faktory rozvoja a radikalizácie islamu v regióne Strednej Ázie," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 73-85.
    16. Katarína Brocková, 2012. "Nová európska investičná politika a jej dopad na osud bilaterálnych investičných dohôd členských štátov EÚ (2. časť)," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 27-35.
    17. Sumner J. La Croix & Akihiko Kawaura, 2005. "Institutional Change in Japan: Theory, Evidence, and Reflections," Economics Study Area Working Papers 82, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
    18. Stanislaw Konopacki, 2012. "Problem of Eastern partnership during Polish presidency in the European Union in 2011," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 119-128.
    19. Nóra Szikorová, 2012. "Súčasné a očakávané budúce trendy prílevu čínskych priamych investícií do Afriky," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 99-108.
    20. Zuzana Stuchlíková, 2012. "Japan´s lost decade: on the development of the Japanese economy in the 1990s," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 129-152.
    21. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers and Policy Coordination," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 6, pages 175-234, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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