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Improving the Validity of Microsimulation Results: Lessons from Slovakia

Author

Listed:
  • Zuzana Siebertova

    (Council for Budget Responsibility, I. Karvasa 1, 813 25 Bratislava, Slovakia)

  • Norbert Svarda

    (Council for Budget Responsibility, I. Karvasa 1, 813 25 Bratislava, Slovakia)

  • Jana Valachyova

    (Council for Budget Responsibility, I. Karvasa 1, 813 25 Bratislava, Slovakia)

Abstract

This paper summarizes the lessons learned in the process of building a microsimulation tool tailored to country-specific conditions and involving a maximum degree of user control. The objective to construct a model useful in the process of budgeting and fiscal forecasting has been achieved by paying attention to policy simulation details as well as to the representativeness of the underlying micro-dataset. The validity of simulated results improved significantly after the input database sample has been reweighted in such a way that the new weights replicate, among other factors, the earned income distribution and selected age cohorts directly. Innovative approaches in bringing the model closer to legislation as well as data highlight the benefits of having more user control compared with standardized microsimulation tools.

Suggested Citation

  • Zuzana Siebertova & Norbert Svarda & Jana Valachyova, 2016. "Improving the Validity of Microsimulation Results: Lessons from Slovakia," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(2), pages 77-105.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v:9:y:2016:i:2:p:77-105
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Callan, Tim & Keane, Claire & Walsh, John R. & Lane, Marguerita, 2010. "From Data to Policy Analysis: Tax-Benefit Modelling using SILC 2008," Papers WP359, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Horváth, Michal & Senaj, Matúš & Siebertová, Zuzana & Švarda, Norbert & Valachyová, Jana, 2019. "The end of the flat tax experiment in Slovakia: An evaluation using behavioural microsimulation in a dynamic macroeconomic framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 171-184.
    2. Matus Senaj & Zuzana Siebertova & Norbert Svarda & Jana Valachyova, 2018. "The Evaluation of Fiscal Consolidation Strategies," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(3), pages 39-58.
    3. Michal Horvath & Matus Senaj & Zuzana Siebertova & Norbert Svarda & Jana Valachyova, 2018. "Evaluating the Aggregate Effects of Tax and Benefit Reforms," Working Papers Working Paper No. 1/2018, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    4. Matus Senaj & Zuzana Siebertova & Norbert Svarda & Jana Valachyova, 2016. "Labour force participation elasticities and the move away from a flat tax: the case of Slovakia," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-26, December.
    5. Norbert Švarda & Jana Valachyová & Matúš Senaj & Michal Horváth & Zuzana Siebertová, 2018. "The end of the flat tax experiment in Slovakia: An evaluation using behavioural microsimulation linked with a dynamic macroeconomic framework," Discussion Papers 50, Central European Labour Studies Institute (CELSI).
    6. Gyubeom Park & Kichan Yoon & Munjae Lee, 2021. "Regional Factors Influencing Non-Take-Up for Social Support in Korea Using a Spatial Regression Model," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, December.
    7. Michal Horváth & Zuzana Siebertová, 2019. "Employment Effects of Income Tax Reforms: Lessons from Slovakia," Discussion Papers 54, Central European Labour Studies Institute (CELSI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies

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