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Türkiye’de piyasa göstergelerinden para politikası beklentilerinin ölçülmesi

  • Harun ALP

    (TCMB)

  • Refet GÜRKAYNAK

    (Bilkent Universitesi)

  • Hakan KARA

    (TCMB)

  • Gürsu KELEŞ

    (TCMB)

  • Musa ORAK

    (TCMB)

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de hangi piyasa aracının para politikası kararlarına ilişkin beklentileri daha iyi yansıttığı sorusuna yanıt aramaktır. Bu amaçla, çeşitli piyasa araçları ve yöntemler kullanılarak para politikası faizi beklentileri hesaplanmış ve değişkenlerin para politikası kararlarını tahmin etme güçleri Temmuz 2006-Ekim 2009 dönemi için karşılaştırılmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar, para politikası kararlarını en iyi tahmin etme gücüne sahip olan aracın bir hafta vadeli Türk Lirası Bankalararası Alış Oranı (TRLIBID) olduğunu göstermiştir.

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Article provided by Bilgesel Yayincilik in its journal İktisat İşletme ve Finans.

Volume (Year): 25 (2010)
Issue (Month): 295 ()
Pages: 21-45

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Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:25:y:2010:i:295:p:21-45
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  1. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
  2. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996. "Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Zelal AKTAŞ & Harun ALP & Refet GÜRKAYNAK & Mehtap KESRİYELİ & Musa ORAK, 2009. "Türkiye'de para politikasının aktarımı: Para politikasının mali piyasalara etkisi," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 24(278), pages 9-24.
  4. William Poole & Robert Rasche, 2000. "Perfecting the Market's Knowledge of Monetary Policy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 255-298, December.
  5. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 943-48, November.
  6. Brunner, Allan D, 2000. "On the Derivation of Monetary Policy Shocks: Should We Throw the VAR Out with the Bath Water?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 254-79, May.
  7. Jon Faust & Eric Swanson & and Jonathan H. Wright, 2002. "Identifying vars based on high frequency futures data," International Finance Discussion Papers 720, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2002. "Market-based measures of monetary policy expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "The Fed and Interest Rates: A High-Frequency Identification," NBER Working Papers 8839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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