IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regression tree analysis of effects of energy prices on Turkish current account deficit


  • Tevfik AYTEMİZ

    (Mersin Üniversitesi)

  • Ahmet ŞENGÖNÜL

    (Mersin Üniversitesi)


Today, some worldwide negative speculative developments variably increase the energy prices. For developing countries whose economic growth substantially depends on energy import, especially on oil-import, an increase in energy prices will negatively affect the cost of import, hence will lead to current account deficits. Accordingly, this study examines the effect of energy prices on current account deficit in Turkey. A non-parametric Regression Trees technique is used. Differing from classical estimation techniques, Regression Trees can effectively differentiate the effects of interactions between the time and the energy prices, as well as other macroeconomic variables such as economic growth and exchange rates, on the current account deficit. Analysis results show that energy prices negatively affect the current account, indicating that energy price shocks do not have recessionary effect on economy, before the time period 2003:11, and the exchange rates become the most significant explanatory variable for the time period after 2003:11 and need to be considered more seriously.

Suggested Citation

  • Tevfik AYTEMİZ & Ahmet ŞENGÖNÜL, 2008. "Regression tree analysis of effects of energy prices on Turkish current account deficit," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 23(269), pages 94-109.
  • Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:23:y:2008:i:269:p:94-109

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Aşıcı, Ahmet Atıl, 2015. "On the sustainability of the economic growth path of Turkey: 1995–2009," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1731-1741.
    2. Bildirici, Melike Elif & Kayıkçı, Fazıl, 2013. "Effects of oil production on economic growth in Eurasian countries: Panel ARDL approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 156-161.

    More about this item


    Energy Prices; Current Account; Regression Trees;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:23:y:2008:i:269:p:94-109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ali Bilge). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.