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Regression tree analysis of effects of energy prices on Turkish current account deficit

Author

Listed:
  • Tevfik AYTEMİZ

    (Mersin Üniversitesi)

  • Ahmet ŞENGÖNÜL

    (Mersin Üniversitesi)

Abstract

Today, some worldwide negative speculative developments variably increase the energy prices. For developing countries whose economic growth substantially depends on energy import, especially on oil-import, an increase in energy prices will negatively affect the cost of import, hence will lead to current account deficits. Accordingly, this study examines the effect of energy prices on current account deficit in Turkey. A non-parametric Regression Trees technique is used. Differing from classical estimation techniques, Regression Trees can effectively differentiate the effects of interactions between the time and the energy prices, as well as other macroeconomic variables such as economic growth and exchange rates, on the current account deficit. Analysis results show that energy prices negatively affect the current account, indicating that energy price shocks do not have recessionary effect on economy, before the time period 2003:11, and the exchange rates become the most significant explanatory variable for the time period after 2003:11 and need to be considered more seriously.

Suggested Citation

  • Tevfik AYTEMİZ & Ahmet ŞENGÖNÜL, 2008. "Regression tree analysis of effects of energy prices on Turkish current account deficit," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 23(269), pages 94-109.
  • Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:23:y:2008:i:269:p:94-109
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    Cited by:

    1. Aşıcı, Ahmet Atıl, 2015. "On the sustainability of the economic growth path of Turkey: 1995–2009," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1731-1741.
    2. Bildirici, Melike Elif & Kayıkçı, Fazıl, 2013. "Effects of oil production on economic growth in Eurasian countries: Panel ARDL approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 156-161.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy Prices; Current Account; Regression Trees;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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