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Modelling diffusion of successive generations of technology: a general framework

Author

Listed:
  • P.K. Kapur
  • Anu G. Aggarwal
  • Amir Hossein Soleiman Garmabaki
  • Gurinder Singh

Abstract

In today's market where each company is trying to prove itself better than its competitors, companies have to continually bring new generations of their products so as to survive in the market. Each succeeding generation offers some innovative performance or new functionality, distinguishing itself from the past generation. Based on the behavioural assumptions of diffusion theory, this paper proposes an extension of the Bass diffusion model that separates substitution from switching as well as leapfrogging. We also present a relationship between our model and Norton-Bass model. Empirical implications of the proposed model have been validated on data collected from two industries (semiconductor industry dynamic random access memory shipments of six generations, mainframe industry (USA)). The model describes the growth of these generations quite effectively.

Suggested Citation

  • P.K. Kapur & Anu G. Aggarwal & Amir Hossein Soleiman Garmabaki & Gurinder Singh, 2013. "Modelling diffusion of successive generations of technology: a general framework," International Journal of Operational Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 16(4), pages 465-484.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijores:v:16:y:2013:i:4:p:465-484
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Saurabh Panwar & P. K. Kapur & Ompal Singh, 2021. "Predicting diffusion dynamics and launch time strategy for mobile telecommunication services: an empirical analysis," Information Technology and Management, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 33-51, March.
    2. Richie Aggarwal & Ompal Singh & Adarsh Anand & P. K. Kapur, 2019. "Modeling innovation adoption incorporating time lag between awareness and adoption process," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 10(1), pages 83-90, February.
    3. Adarsh Anand & Mohini Agarwal & Gunjan Bansal & A. H. S. Garmabaki, 2016. "Studying product diffusion based on market coverage," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(4), pages 135-146, December.

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