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Evaluating alternative fuels in USA: a proposed forecasting framework using AHP and scenarios

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  • M.R. Nava
  • Tugrul U. Daim

Abstract

This paper proposes a forecasting framework that integrates the analytic hierarchy process with scenario analysis techniques to explore the commercialisation of future motor fuel technologies. We analyse the reasons for the uncertainty of oil price and how it affects alternative fuel commercialisation. We propose a set of evaluation criteria including Economic, Cultural, Environmental, Sustainability and Development Time. Finally, we develop four different Scenarios to verify the robustness of each alternative.

Suggested Citation

  • M.R. Nava & Tugrul U. Daim, 2007. "Evaluating alternative fuels in USA: a proposed forecasting framework using AHP and scenarios," International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(4), pages 289-313.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijatma:v:7:y:2007:i:4:p:289-313
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nayyar Hussain Mirjat & Mohammad Aslam Uqaili & Khanji Harijan & Mohd Wazir Mustafa & Md. Mizanur Rahman & M. Waris Ali Khan, 2018. "Multi-Criteria Analysis of Electricity Generation Scenarios for Sustainable Energy Planning in Pakistan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-33, March.
    2. Tsita, Katerina G. & Pilavachi, Petros A., 2013. "Evaluation of next generation biomass derived fuels for the transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 443-455.
    3. Jamal, Taskin & Urmee, Tania & Shafiullah, G.M., 2020. "Planning of off-grid power supply systems in remote areas using multi-criteria decision analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    4. Tsita, Katerina G. & Pilavachi, Petros A., 2012. "Evaluation of alternative fuels for the Greek road transport sector using the analytic hierarchy process," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 677-686.
    5. Li, Chengjiang & Negnevitsky, Michael & Wang, Xiaolin & Yue, Wen Long & Zou, Xin, 2019. "Multi-criteria analysis of policies for implementing clean energy vehicles in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 826-840.
    6. Adebayo Agbejule & Ahm Shamsuzzoha & Kodjovi Lotchi & Kendall Rutledge, 2021. "Application of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Process to Select Waste-to-Energy Technology in Developing Countries: The Case of Ghana," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-19, November.
    7. Martin, Hilary & Daim, Tugrul U., 2012. "Technology roadmap development process (TRDP) for the service sector: A conceptual framework," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 94-105.

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