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Credit Downturn In The Aftermath Of Indonesian Crisis 1997 Revisited: An Application Of Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

Author

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  • Erwin Gunawan Hutapea

    (Bank Indonesia)

Abstract

Studi ini bertujuan mengestimasi persamaan jangka panjang permintaan kredit dan penawaran kredit di Indonesia dengan menggunakan teknik pengujian kointegrasi yang relatif baru, yaitu teknik autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing. Data yang digunakan adalah data kuartalan pada periode 1985Q1-2004Q2. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa permintaan kredit dan penawaran kredit memiliki hubungan jangka panjang (terkointegrasi) dengan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhinya. Selain itu, pengujian CUSUM dan CUSUMSQ menunjukkan bahwa koefisien kedua persamaan jangka panjang tersebut memiliki stabilitas. Plot estimasi permintaan kredit dan penawaran kredit menunjukkan bahwa lambatnya proses pemulihan penyaluran kredit setelah krisis di Indonesia lebih banyak disebabkan oleh lemahnya permintaan kredit.

Suggested Citation

  • Erwin Gunawan Hutapea, 2007. "Credit Downturn In The Aftermath Of Indonesian Crisis 1997 Revisited: An Application Of Ardl Bounds Testing Approach," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 9(4), pages 1-18, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:9:y:2007:i:4:p:1-18
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v9i4.212
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Alam, Khosrul, 2022. "Impact of industrialization and non-renewable energy on environmental pollution in Australia: Do renewable energy and financial development play a mitigating role?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 203-213.
    2. Aloysius Deno Hervino, 2011. "Avoiding risk in working capital credit distribution in Indonesia," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 3(2), pages 199-210, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARDL; cointegration; bounds testing; ECM; credit; Indonesia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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