The Electric Matrix of the State of São Paulo Toward the Just Energy Transition: Comparative Analysis of Strategies Based on the Experience of the 2014–2015 and 2021 Water Crises

This paper analyses the evolution of the electric matrix of the Brazilian state of São Paulo between 2012 and 2022, assessing the impacts on the electric system of two major water crisis events that occurred in 2014–2015 and 2021. We conducted our analysis through the lens of just energy transition, which is here understood as an approach that encompasses elements from environmental, climatic, and energy justice in the study of energy planning and policies. In this sense, in this paper we focus on elements of distributive energy justice. We find that the electric matrix of the state had a slight but still insufficient diversification, remaining tied to a dependence on hydraulic and fossil fuel generation and highly vulnerable to water crisis events. In addition, we show how both water-crisis events significantly influenced electric generation in the state, leading to increases in costs and tariffs, which are implied in issues of distributive justice. From these results we conclude that, through the perspective of just energy transition, the energy planning of the state lacked a clear path to decarbonization and diversification, perpetuating a weakness that produces issues of energy justice in crisis scenarios.