Cereal Self-Sufficiency in Jordan: Dynamic Drivers and Policy Implications

This study examines the factors affecting cereal self-sufficiency in Jordan over the period 2002-2023. Particular attention is given to agricultural bank credit, government agricultural expenditure, food price inflation, and population growth in a resource-constrained economy that depends heavily on imported food commodities. Annual time-series data were analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to estimate both short-run and long-run relationships among the variables. An error correction model (ECM) was also employed to evaluate the speed of adjustment toward long-run equilibrium. The results confirm the existence of a stable long-run relationship among the study variables. In the short run, food price inflation and agricultural bank credit exert statistically significant negative effects on cereal self-sufficiency. Agricultural credit, however, shows a positive lagged effect, indicating that its contribution to cereal self-sufficiency may emerge gradually over time. Government agricultural expenditure and population growth do not produce statistically significant short-run effects. The error correction term is negative and highly significant, indicating that deviations from long-run equilibrium are corrected relatively quickly. The findings indicate that improving the effectiveness of agricultural credit programs, strengthening food price stabilization measures, and directing public agricultural expenditure toward long-term productivity-enhancing investment may contribute to improving cereal self-sufficiency in Jordan and reducing dependence on imported food commodities.