IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/hin/jnlmpe/2903935.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk Analysis for Cascade Reservoirs Collapse Based on Bayesian Networks under the Combined Action of Flood and Landslide Surge

Author

Listed:
  • Ping Li
  • Chuan Liang

Abstract

A method based on a Bayesian network (BN) combined with stochastic Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is used in this research to calculate the probability and analyze the risk of a single reservoir dam overtopping and two reservoirs collapsing under the combined action of flood and landslide surge. Two adjacent cascade reservoirs on the Dadu River are selected for risk calculation and analysis. The results show that the conditional probability of a dam overtopping due to flooding in a single reservoir is relatively small; the conditional probability of a dam overtopping due to landslide surge in a single reservoir is relatively large; a combination of flooding and landslide surge greatly increases the risk of the dam overtopping. The conditional probability that the dam in (downstream) Changheba reservoir overtops as a result of a dam-break flood from (upstream) Houziyan reservoir is greater than 0.8 when the water in Changheba reservoir is at its normal level. Under the combined action of flooding and landslide surges, the joint probability that the two cascade reservoirs collapse in a variety of typical situations is very small.

Suggested Citation

  • Ping Li & Chuan Liang, 2016. "Risk Analysis for Cascade Reservoirs Collapse Based on Bayesian Networks under the Combined Action of Flood and Landslide Surge," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2016, pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:jnlmpe:2903935
    DOI: 10.1155/2016/2903935
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/MPE/2016/2903935.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/MPE/2016/2903935.xml
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1155/2016/2903935?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ye Zheng & Yazhou Xie & Xuejiao Long, 2021. "A comprehensive review of Bayesian statistics in natural hazards engineering," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 63-91, August.
    2. Wang, Te & Li, Zongkun & Ge, Wei & Zhang, Hua & Zhang, Yadong & Sun, Heqiang & Jiao, Yutie, 2023. "Risk consequence assessment of dam breach in cascade reservoirs considering risk transmission and superposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    3. El-Awady, Ahmed & Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy, 2021. "Integration of simulation and Markov Chains to support Bayesian Networks for probabilistic failure analysis of complex systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    4. Te Wang & Zongkun Li & Wei Ge & Yadong Zhang & Yutie Jiao & Hua Zhang & Heqiang Sun & Pieter Gelder, 2023. "Risk assessment methods of cascade reservoir dams: a review and reflection," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(2), pages 1601-1622, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hin:jnlmpe:2903935. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mohamed Abdelhakeem (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.hindawi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.