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Optimal Selling of an Asset under Incomplete Information

Author

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  • Erik Ekström
  • Bing Lu

Abstract

We consider an agent who wants to liquidate an asset with unknown drift. The agent believes that the drift takes one of two given values and has initially an estimate for the probability of either of them. As time goes by, the agent observes the asset price and can therefore update his beliefs about the probabilities for the drift distribution. We formulate an optimal stopping problem that describes the liquidation problem, and we demonstrate that the optimal strategy is to liquidate the first time the asset price falls below a certain time-dependent boundary. Moreover, this boundary is shown to be monotonically increasing, continuous and to satisfy a nonlinear integral equation.

Suggested Citation

  • Erik Ekström & Bing Lu, 2011. "Optimal Selling of an Asset under Incomplete Information," International Journal of Stochastic Analysis, Hindawi, vol. 2011, pages 1-17, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:jnijsa:543590
    DOI: 10.1155/2011/543590
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    Cited by:

    1. Felix Dammann & Giorgio Ferrari, 2023. "Optimal execution with multiplicative price impact and incomplete information on the return," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 713-768, July.
    2. Tiziano Angelis, 2020. "Optimal dividends with partial information and stopping of a degenerate reflecting diffusion," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 71-123, January.
    3. Sabri Boubaker & Zhenya Liu & Yaosong Zhan, 2022. "Risk management for crude oil futures: an optimal stopping-timing approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 9-27, June.
    4. Glover, Kristoffer, 2022. "Optimally stopping a Brownian bridge with an unknown pinning time: A Bayesian approach," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 919-937.
    5. Dammann, Felix & Ferrari, Giorgio, 2022. "Optimal Execution with Multiplicative Price Impact and Incomplete Information on the Return," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 663, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    6. Jason S. Anquandah & Leonid V. Bogachev, 2019. "Optimal Stopping and Utility in a Simple Modelof Unemployment Insurance," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-41, September.
    7. Felix Dammann & Giorgio Ferrari, 2022. "Optimal Execution with Multiplicative Price Impact and Incomplete Information on the Return," Papers 2202.10414, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    8. Xing, Jie & Ma, Jingtang & Yang, Wensheng, 2023. "Optimal entry decision of unemployment insurance under partial information," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 31-52.
    9. Kristoffer Glover & Hardy Hulley, 2022. "Short Selling With Margin Risk And Recall Risk," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 25(02), pages 1-33, March.

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