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Modeling Chickenpox Dynamics with a Discrete Time Bayesian Stochastic Compartmental Model

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  • A. Corberán-Vallet
  • F. J. Santonja
  • M. Jornet-Sanz
  • R.-J. Villanueva

Abstract

We present a Bayesian stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model in discrete time to understand chickenpox transmission in the Valencian Community, Spain. During the last decades, different strategies have been introduced in the routine immunization program in order to reduce the impact of this disease, which remains a public health’s great concern. Under this scenario, a model capable of explaining closely the dynamics of chickenpox under the different vaccination strategies is of utter importance to assess their effectiveness. The proposed model takes into account both heterogeneous mixing of individuals in the population and the inherent stochasticity in the transmission of the disease. As shown in a comparative study, these assumptions are fundamental to describe properly the evolution of the disease. The Bayesian analysis of the model allows us to calculate the posterior distribution of the model parameters and the posterior predictive distribution of chickenpox incidence, which facilitates the computation of point forecasts and prediction intervals.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Corberán-Vallet & F. J. Santonja & M. Jornet-Sanz & R.-J. Villanueva, 2018. "Modeling Chickenpox Dynamics with a Discrete Time Bayesian Stochastic Compartmental Model," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-9, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:complx:3060368
    DOI: 10.1155/2018/3060368
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Acedo, L. & Moraño, J.-A. & Santonja, F.-J. & Villanueva, R.-J., 2016. "A deterministic model for highly contagious diseases: The case of varicella," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 450(C), pages 278-286.
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    Cited by:

    1. Calatayud, Julia & Jornet, Marc & Mateu, Jorge & Pinto, Carla M.A., 2023. "A new population model for urban infestations," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 175(P1).
    2. Nura M. R. Ahmad & Cristina Montañola-Sales & Clara Prats & Mustapha Musa & Daniel López & Josep Casanovas-Garcia, 2018. "Analyzing Policymaking for Tuberculosis Control in Nigeria," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-13, November.
    3. Calatayud, Julia & Jornet, Marc, 2020. "Mathematical modeling of adulthood obesity epidemic in Spain using deterministic, frequentist and Bayesian approaches," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Yin, Qian & Wang, Zhishuang & Xia, Chengyi & Dehmer, Matthias & Emmert-Streib, Frank & Jin, Zhen, 2020. "A novel epidemic model considering demographics and intercity commuting on complex dynamical networks," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 386(C).

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