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Estimation of Costs and Durations of Construction of Urban Roads Using ANN and SVM

Author

Listed:
  • Igor Peško
  • Vladimir Mučenski
  • Miloš Šešlija
  • Nebojša Radović
  • Aleksandra Vujkov
  • Dragana Bibić
  • Milena Krklješ

Abstract

Offer preparation has always been a specific part of a building process which has significant impact on company business. Due to the fact that income greatly depends on offer’s precision and the balance between planned costs, both direct and overheads, and wished profit, it is necessary to prepare a precise offer within required time and available resources which are always insufficient. The paper presents a research of precision that can be achieved while using artificial intelligence for estimation of cost and duration in construction projects. Both artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SVM) are analysed and compared. The best SVM has shown higher precision, when estimating costs, with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 7.06% compared to the most precise ANNs which has achieved precision of 25.38%. Estimation of works duration has proved to be more difficult. The best MAPEs were 22.77% and 26.26% for SVM and ANN, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Igor Peško & Vladimir Mučenski & Miloš Šešlija & Nebojša Radović & Aleksandra Vujkov & Dragana Bibić & Milena Krklješ, 2017. "Estimation of Costs and Durations of Construction of Urban Roads Using ANN and SVM," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:complx:2450370
    DOI: 10.1155/2017/2450370
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ajibade Ayodeji Aibinu & Thomas Pasco, 2008. "The accuracy of pre-tender building cost estimates in Australia," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(12), pages 1257-1269.
    2. Martin Skitmore, 2002. "Raftery curve construction for tender price forecasts," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 83-89.
    3. Remer, Donald S. & Buchanan, Harry R., 2000. "Estimating the cost for doing a cost estimate," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 101-104, June.
    4. John Gunner & Martin Skitmore, 1999. "Comparative analysis of pre-bid forecasting of building prices based on Singapore data," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 635-646.
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    Cited by:

    1. Federico Nuñez-Piña & Joselito Medina-Marin & Juan Carlos Seck-Tuoh-Mora & Norberto Hernandez-Romero & Eva Selene Hernandez-Gress, 2018. "Modeling of Throughput in Production Lines Using Response Surface Methodology and Artificial Neural Networks," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-10, January.
    2. Fatemeh Mostofi & Vedat Toğan & Yunus Emre Ayözen & Onur Behzat Tokdemir, 2022. "Predicting the Impact of Construction Rework Cost Using an Ensemble Classifier," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-19, November.

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