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Makroekonomski Učinci Diskrecijskih Izmjena U Sustavu Poreza Na Dodanu Vrijednost (Pdv) U Hrvatskoj: Narativni Pristup

Author

Listed:
  • Milan Deskar-Škrbić

    (Direkcija za monetarnu politiku, Hrvatska narodna banka)

  • Ana Grdović Gnip

    (Fakulteta za matematiko, naravoslovje in informacijske tehnologije, Koper, Univerza na Primorskem)

  • Hrvoje Šimović

    (Ekonomski fakultet, Sveučilište u Zagrebu)

Abstract

Kao najizdašniji porezni oblik u hrvatskom poreznom sustavu porez na dodanu vrijednost (PDV) je od uvođenja 1998. godine zabilježio niz diskrecijskih izmjena. Neke izmjene su bile motivirane potrebom za fiskalnom konsolidacijom, neke prilagodbom zakonodavstvu EU, a neke željom nositelja politike da ublaže učinke njegove regresivnosti ili da potaknu pojedinu gospodarsku aktivnost. S obzirom na važnu ulogu PDV-a u poreznom sustavu te sklonost nositelja politike da relativno često pristupaju izmjenama u sustavu PDV-a, u ovom radu se istražuje učinak diskrecijskih izmjena u sustavu PDV-a na kretanje BDP-a i osobne potrošnje, na temelju tzv. narativnog pristupa. U ovom radu originalni Romer i Romer (2010) narativni pristup prilagođava kako bi se u analizu uključili i učinci eksternih šokova koji u slučaju Hrvatske, kao malog otvorenog gospodarstva, značajno utječu na makroekonomska kretanja. Rezultati pokazuju kako je smanjenje domaće potražnje uslijed povećanja poreznog opterećenja PDV-om statistički značajno do osmog kvartala od šoka te doseže razinu od 4% u četvrtom kvartalu. Reakcija osobne potrošnje je statistički značajna samo u prvoj godini te povećanje poreza od 1% dovodi do smanjenja osobne potrošnje nešto više od 1%.

Suggested Citation

  • Milan Deskar-Škrbić & Ana Grdović Gnip & Hrvoje Šimović, 2022. "Makroekonomski Učinci Diskrecijskih Izmjena U Sustavu Poreza Na Dodanu Vrijednost (Pdv) U Hrvatskoj: Narativni Pristup," Ekonomski pregled, Hrvatsko društvo ekonomista (Croatian Society of Economists), vol. 73(6), pages 881-904.
    • Handle: RePEc:hde:epregl:v:73:y:2022:i:6:p:881-904
    DOI: 10.32910/ep.73.6.3
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    Keywords

    PDV; egzogene diskrecijske porezne izmjene; narativni pristup; BDP; potrošnja; Hrvatska;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems

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